‘Russian influence’ created real chaos in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro

After the last speeches of the Croatian president, in which he sided with Dodik and criticized Ukraine and NATO, the question arises whether Milanovic is covered by the sphere of "Russian influence" in the Balkans.

The open sympathy of Milorad Dodik and the statements about the current Ukrainian crisis, due to which he was on the black list of that country, put Croatian President Zoran Milanovic, at least for a large number of neutral observers, in the group of people who, in a way, promote and spread "Russian political impact ”in the region.

Some are of the opinion that Milovanović received the support of Russian lobbyists, and those who share that opinion claim that this influence is most clearly visible in concluding some kind of, at least symbolic - ideological, alliance between Milorad Dodik - Dragan Čović - Zoran Milanović.

On the other hand, there are those who interpret Milanovic's sudden Russophilia as a reflection of his character, and explain his sympathy for Russia by his desire to oppose the current Croatian Prime Minister, Andrej Plenković, in every political issue, including that.

Experienced Croatian journalist and political commentator Vlado Vurusic thinks so, comparing Milanovic's behavior to that of Czech President Milios Zeman.

"Well, I don't have any specific information about these things, Milanovic has no connection with any Russian lobby or anything like that, I have to admit that he doesn't." There are no tangible things, there may be something there, but we can't say anything. In my opinion, a good part of it doesn't have to be connected, of course, it is not excluded, with some Russian lobbyists, or something like that, but first of all it can be his character, because in the last few months he has changed his worldview by 180 degrees. the political views on which he won the elections ", says Vurušić.

However, the language of his statements, in the country itself, caused consternation, especially among the people who voted for Zoran Milanovic in the last presidential election.

"In Croatia, there is a lot of consternation with his electorate, that is, with the people who voted for him. First of all, it must be known that people voted not so much because of him as because they wanted Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović to no longer be president. Another thing, when we connect what he says about Bosnia, the connection with Dodik and what he said about NATO and Ukraine, he is, as they say in Croatia, a kind of Croatian Milos Zeman, who we know often makes similar statements. who use that Russian position, and in fact he, like Milanovic, does not have as much constitutional authority as he would like to present. "

Russian influence is particularly pronounced in Montenegro

It is crystal clear what is behind Milanovic's behavior, but it is crystal clear that "Russian influence" is very present, not only in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but also in other countries in the region, says political analyst from Banja Luka Tanja Topic.

"Russian influence" can be seen most clearly in Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and it came to the fore, explains Topic, at the moment when it became more than clear that Montenegro is becoming a member of NATO.

"Definitely Russian influence exists and Russia in some way used the space in which the European Union dealt with its own problems, rearranging its own things, so it overslept the strengthening and strengthening of Russian influence in the region. He especially came to the fore at the moment when the issue of Montenegro's accession to NATO was opened, and there was actually a big campaign that simply tried to thwart and prevent that process. Further influence also concerned the creation of chaos within Bosnia and Herzegovina itself, where we saw that from almost completed things and reforms agreed by BiH at all levels, in terms of joining NATO, today we have reached a completely different situation where we have RS opposition to BiH's NATO membership ".

Furthermore, explains Topic, we must not forget that Russia exercises its influence in Bosnia and Herzegovina formally and publicly. This is reflected in the functioning of the Office of the High Representative in BiH and the work of the Peace Implementation Council.

Topic explains that this influence has been visible for years, because Russia, as a rule, separated its opinion and supported Republika Srpska and Milorod Dodik, and "the crown of that kind of influence was expressed in the United Nations Security Council when BiH got a new High Representative Christian Schmidt, which in fact led RS, ie Milorad Dodik, to dispute the existence of the Office of the High Representative and the new High Representative, his appointment, with the strong support of Russia, which in some ways expanded and the support of China, which also represented in the Security Council that position of Russia. "

Support for Dragan Covic

As for the informal and invisible influence, Topic says that with his alliance with Russia, Milorad Dodik managed to win the favor of Russia and his allies, primarily for HDZ President Dragan Covic.

"Milorad Dodik speaks very clearly and publicly that he enjoys the support of Russia, he is grateful for the support he has and emphasizes Russia as a friend. So, Russia has decided on one side, that is, to support the policy that comes from the RS, but we also see that in those relations of support, that kind of support was actually won for HDZ President Dragan Covic. "

In this light, Topic sees the presence of "Russian influence" in neighboring Croatia, with the caveat that the views expressed by the Croatian president must be clearly differentiated, on the one hand, from the views advocated by the Croatian government.

"Based on this situation, we see that direction of support which is more and more pronounced, at least on that apparent and public and symbolic level, between Croatian President Zoran Milanovic, which in that context cannot be equated with the full support of the Croatian government in relations with Russia." for the simple reason that we have seen this kind of "split" in relation to Ukraine, the Ukrainian issue, the Ukrainian crisis, where the government of the Republic of Croatia is actually following the position of the EU member states. "

Vlado Vurušić also points out that the difference in attitudes towards the "Ukrainian issue" is very noticeable when considering the policies of the Croatian president and the Croatian prime minister.

Milanovic's rivalry with Plenković

"One more thing, there is his rivalry with Prime Minister Plenković, who in these matters NATO, Ukraine, relations with Russia, Bosnia and Herzegovina has different views. Some opposites, some a little less, but in any case we cannot rule out that Milanovic, who is, conditionally speaking, at war with the Prime Minister, is actually doing all this, among other things, because it is a story about their rivalry, or their political or ideological competition. . Milanovic, unfortunately, turned into one of the politicians for whom the left spectrum of the electorate voted, so he turned into a representative, not of the right, but of a rather radically right-wing political body. They support him when he talks about BiH and when he talks about Ukraine ", says Vurušić.

In the end, Vurušić reminds that Milanović should remember some historical events and draw common sense analogies from them, especially when he talks about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

"The situation in Ukraine is quite similar to the one in Croatia in the 1990s, because what are these parastate creations in Ukraine than the SAO Krajina?" Croatia was also exposed to the aggression of a larger country and more numerous than it is alone. There's a little weird thing here. The story that NATO did not have an impact on what was happening in Croatia and later in BiH and Kosovo during the wars is not entirely true, given that we know that NATO, or the West, is late, but it still reacted and we know that the Storm was, in a way, carried out with the blessing of the United States and NATO, and even with some logistical and political help. "