Russia will not help Dodik disband BiH

The Russian public and media do not follow Dodik's conflict with Sarajevo and the world; he can count on a welcome in Belgrade and Moscow, but key solutions are still being sought at other addresses.

Since representatives of the BiH entity Republika Srpska began blocking state institutions in late July, Moscow has never called on its political partners in the RS to end the boycott and return to the duties of elected representatives. In any case, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not give critical statements regarding the obstruction of the joint bodies, nor the obvious act of disparagement towards Sarajevo, which was prepared the other day by Milorad Dodik, with accordion and alcohol, in the building of the Presidency of BiH.

Official Moscow turns a blind eye to such "details" as mocking political opponents on ethnic or religious grounds when it comes to its allies. And if Milorad Dodik had watched Russian state television shows discussing Ukraine, the West or the Russian opposition, he might even have enriched his "humorous talent."

‘Inzko is guilty, dialogue is needed’

Russia, which has disagreed with the election of a new High Representative to BiH, Christian Schmidt, has in numerous statements emphasized the need to close the OHR as soon as possible. In that context, Russia's support for the Serbian boycott of state institutions is quite obvious. "We fully understand the wave of popular outrage that has arisen in Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially in Republika Srpska, as a result of the High Representative's voluntary actions," a statement said. Russia believes that all issues should be resolved through dialogue, but, unfortunately, there is no dialogue.

Moscow shifts all responsibility for the political crisis to former High Representative Valentin Inzko (Inzko) and "his instigators" (or the West). And the best way out, according to Russian diplomacy, is to repeal Inzko's decision to impose amendments to the Criminal Code that prohibit and punish the denial of genocide and the glorification of war criminals. On October 14, Russia did not support the joint statement of the ambassador of the Steering Board of the Peace Implementation Council, which states, among other things, that "it is crucial that institutions function at all levels of government, including the BiH Armed Forces."

Russian ‘disruptive’ power

As in other similar cases, Moscow has left many observers with the impression that it is abusing its role in the Steering Board, and is working to deepen the crisis (if not break up) BiH. However, Moscow is not so much committed to the crisis in BiH, but to its rivalry with Washington and the fight against Western influence in the Balkans. From that point of view, the OHR is considered in Moscow exclusively as a lever of influence aimed at Western domination and Euro-Atlantic integration, and not the implementation of the peace agreement.

Given that Russia considers itself an important guarantor of the peace process, and Milorad Dodik his close interlocutor, it would be logical to call on him to show some restraint, especially in statements that can be interpreted as undermining the territorial integrity of BiH. But that will not happen, because Moscow is interested in a completely different dimension, that is, the obstruction of the Western agenda in the Balkans.

The question is how far is Moscow ready to go in its conflict with the United States? Although some options should be ruled out immediately, such as helping Dodik disband BiH and create a new state in Republika Srpska. The disintegration of BiH is still a hypothetical scenario, which is seen as real only on the basis of the statements of one part of the political establishment.

Although Dodik's rhetoric is gradually developing into political action, Russia (even if it wants to) cannot help him become independent, let alone at his own expense.

Moscow may ignore some decisions of the Board of Directors, but it is not in a position to impose its own. Russia finances several media, but does not have its military component in the distant Balkans, where the influence of NATO and the European Union is key. Not to mention that any attempt to undermine U.S. and NATO efforts in the region would result in additional sanctions. This list of restrictions is long enough for Moscow because of the war against Ukraine and the alleged attempt to poison opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Russia may like Dodik's accordion, but it will not bear any responsibility for his policy.

The Chinese factor is confusing

It is unclear whether Russia (and China) will soon block the European military mission Eufor / Althea in BiH in the UN Security Council, whose task is to support the Dayton Accords and train the BiH Armed Forces. Such a move would increase tensions between world powers. Earlier in July, Moscow showed its Western partners that it had China's support for influencing the peace process. Although their joint UN Security Council resolution on the closure of the OHR in 2022 did not receive the support of other countries, statements by Russia and China on Schmidt's illegitimacy gave Milorad Dodik additional political and propaganda energy that he used to promote secession and ridicule. Sarajevo.

The Chinese factor is particularly confusing. In recent years, China has been strengthening its presence in the Balkans through major economic projects and "vaccine diplomacy", but its impact on the peace process in BiH has not been noticeable so far. Unlike Moscow, Beijing was essentially not involved in the "verbal conflict" over BiH. Until Schmidt's tenure as High Representative, China refrained from criticism, and she left the Peace Implementation Council in 2000, which could be interpreted as a weak interest in BiH. Now, things seem to be changing, but due to the lack of transparency, it is difficult to talk about the plans of Moscow and Beijing.

The efforts of Russia and China to play a bigger role in the Balkans did not affect the security situation in BiH. However, in political terms, their "diplomatic coup" against Schmidt and the OHR, amid a stalemate in reforms and the launching of a secessionist agenda, had negative consequences.

The EU and NATO have the leverage to balance the negative trends, it remains to be seen which pressure measures they will use in the coming months.

No international scene for Dodik

Dodik's rhetoric has intensified in the last 10 years, but it should be admitted that he did not go far in conquering the international scene. Dodik, of course, can always count on a welcome in Belgrade and Moscow. However, key solutions are still being sought at other addresses. These days, during the summit of the Non-Aligned Movement in Belgrade, Dodik said that Bosnia and Herzegovina is under the protectorate of the USA, Europe, Japan and Canada, which have brought the country to the brink of disintegration. Although he could not formally represent the Republika Srpska, because the entity is not a subject of international law, Dodik nevertheless used a rare opportunity to address the state gathering.

Unlike the public in the Balkans, the Russian public (with the exception of a small number of experts) does not follow Dodik's conflict with Sarajevo and the world. Russia's mainstream media has not paid much attention to the current Bosnian crisis. At the same time, the vision of BiH as a failed state with tensions and conflicts has been present in the Russian media space for many years. Dodik enjoys the greatest sympathies on conservative nationalist sites that publish reports with anti-Muslim and anti-Western accents, such as the Strategic Culture Fund or the "Tsargrad" site. One such report claims that "it was not Dodik who dug up the hatchet, but the West, which condemned RS leaders for war crimes." "For Sarajevo and the West, Dodik is a bone in his throat. The leader of the Bosnian Serbs must fight against many ", reads the analysis of the mentioned Fund. And no one in Russia dares to guess where this fight will take him.