Putin has found a new reason to talk about peace

A few months ago, the very possibility of resuming the negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine with the participation of American mediators seemed more like political fantasy, even though neither Moscow nor Kyiv had ruled out further visits by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. However, the mediators were occupied with a Sisyphean task—finding a way to resolve the situation following the war with Iran—and the Kremlin was in no rush to negotiate. It is worth recalling that it was the Russians, not the Americans or Ukrainians, who abandoned the consultation process. Until recently, Moscow insisted that negotiations could only resume after Kyiv withdrew its troops from the parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions that remained under the control of the legitimate Ukrainian government. Until then, as stated, Putin refused any talks.

But September arrived, and the mediators traveled to Moscow and Kyiv. This happened even though there was no hope of resolving the situation regarding Iran, even though Ukrainian troops remained in the Donbas, and even though Russian attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities—which remain difficult to defend against—continued.

We understand why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants to resume negotiations: as the head of a state that has suffered aggression and destruction, he is duty-bound to seek paths toward a just peace. This applies both regarding the demands of his own society—weary of the endless war—and the interests of partners who would like Kyiv not to squander chances for peace. We understand why U.S. President Donald Trump wants to continue talks—he would like his peace efforts to succeed and seeks the possibility of resuming economic cooperation with Russia.

However, we do not quite understand why Putin wants to continue the talks—unless the Russian president is genuinely concerned about the state of his economy and wishes to halt Ukrainian attacks. And how can that be achieved without peace agreements?

Yet, negotiations with Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow did not result in any real shift in Russia's stance. Consequently, Putin's willingness to engage in talks could thus far be attributed to his customary stalling tactics. It now seems quite likely, however, that he is stalling not only for Trump's sake but also to appease leaders from the Global South—specifically China's President Xi Jinping and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who serve as Russia's economic backers. Putin met with both of them during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek. And, notably, the tone of his statements changed noticeably thereafter.

Another factor that may have influenced Putin's mood is the Russian president's desire to meet with his American counterpart during the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, this November. Clearly, Putin's reluctance to meet with American intermediaries and demonstrate a willingness to seek paths to peace could jeopardize such a meeting. Moreover, Putin harbors a more ambitious idea, one "announced" by Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov following talks with Witkoff and Kushner.

This involves holding a trilateral summit between Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shenzhen meeting. For Putin, such a meeting would represent a massive achievement, as it would establish him as a leader of the modern world, on par with the American and Chinese presidents. And Trump, as is well known, gravitates toward such a format.

It is quite likely that the resumption of negotiations to end the Russo-Ukrainian war was merely part of the Kremlin's plan to organize a trilateral meeting—and nothing more. The visit by the American intermediaries may have no connection whatsoever to actually ending the war or to Russia shifting toward a more constructive and realistic position.