Putin does not want and cannot: 4 reasons why the war will not end in the coming months

There is no need to expect peace in the coming months, warns journalist Vadim Denisenko. And the point is not so much Putin's unwillingness to stop the war, but his inability to do so, as well as the fact that these issues will now be decided by bigger players.

Why can't the war be stopped in the coming months?

Negotiations between the United States and Russia appear to be actively continuing behind the scenes. But these negotiations no longer determine the limits of the end of the war.

An article was published in The Telegraph stating that during the war a middle class was formed in Russia that does not want the war to end. And this is probably the main reason for the continuation of hostilities. Many Ukrainian media reported this, at first glance, almost nonsense.

In the book "Post-Putin. Russia with which we will have to live for the next 50 years", I, together with Vitaly Pirovich, tried to count those who benefit from this war. And there are not as many of them as it seems at first glance - about 10 percent of the total population of the Russian Federation. But, first, this is not exactly the middle class, and, second, we can only guess how many of them want the war to continue at all costs (I'm guessing it's far from 100 percent, but, at most, 70 to 75 percent).

The reasons why Putin does not want the war to end lie in something else entirely. What are the reasons?

He did not achieve any of the goals for 2022 (Russia did not become and will not become the third pole of the world; Russia did not get and, it seems, lost the ability to have unlimited police functions in the post-Soviet space; thanks to the war, it will no longer be possible to stop the de-Slavization of the Russian Federation).

Putin relies on 25 percent of patriots who want the war to continue until the destruction of Ukraine (these are the numbers from our and New Image Group research). Putin does not understand how he can end the war without turning this proactive minority into his opponents.

In Russia, a large-scale nationalization (redistribution of property) is underway in the interest of six families (Patrushev, Chemezov, Kiriyenko, Rotenberg, Kovalchuk, Sechin), although a large number of high-ranking security officials use "fragments". Stopping the war can change the rules of the game of this phase of wealth accumulation, and thus - the preparations for the transition of power. Putin's entourage will resist the end of the war for some time.

We have entered a new phase of negotiations, where the main negotiators are China and the USA (within the framework of these negotiations there is a possibility to hold talks on Ukraine). Putin wants to play the role of mediator in these negotiations (spoiler: he will not succeed, because he is not needed as a mediator). But he will try to negotiate two things: reducing nuclear weapons (this is what Trump can sell as a victory and that, in theory, can satisfy Xi) and participation in the development of the Northern Sea Route and the development of the Arctic shelf together with the PRC and the US.

In my opinion, these are the main factors affecting the entire geopolitical game of Russia today.

Economic logic plus nuclear weapons is what Trump likes, but his goal is successful negotiations with the People's Republic of China, which are just beginning. The logic of the People's Republic of China is that within the framework of these negotiations it will officially receive the status of the other half of the world

and agree on trade coexistence in the next 10 to 15 years, which implies the collapse of the WTO system (Trump will insist on this). And, of course, China and the US will agree on such rules of the game, where there will be no direct military conflict between them.

The basic problem of Ukraine (at all levels, including expert level) is the unwillingness to understand the changes that are already happening before our eyes. And therefore we have to change our negotiation strategy. The new logic of negotiation is not just the appearance of another key negotiator. It is also a new race of at least 5,000 meters.