Putin and Xi's alliance against the West. Is this the new Cold War?

 

However, the well-known arrogance of the collective West caused Mr. O'Neill's ideas to be ridiculed and devalued, so Brazil, China, India and Russia decided to take matters into their own hands and formed the BRIC group at a summit in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg on June 16, 2009.  

 

The Republic of South Africa joined the group in 2010, thus creating BRICS. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have been invited to become full members from January 1, 2024. Although it made certain contradictory statements about the accession of Saudi Arabia, the government of the Republic of South Africa ultimately confirmed its full status.

 

 

What were the original goals of BRICS

 

In the beginning, the idea of BRICS as a group that represents emerging economies and strives for cooperation with the richest countries in the world, concentrated above all in the G7 group (an informal forum of the heads of state of the most advanced world economies, founded in 1975, consisting of Germany, France , the United Kingdom, Italy, Japan, Canada and the United States as members and the highest representatives of the European Union).

 

Along with the strengthening of economic activities, the focus of action was on strengthening cooperation in science, technology and innovation, the digital economy and greater cooperation in the fight against transnational crime, money laundering and drug trafficking.

 

Also, BRICS legitimized itself as a group that promotes the values of multilateralism, preservation of the international system with the United Nations as a vital core, and respect for international law defined in the goals and principles of the United Nations Charter.

 

 

Frustrations and change of course of action

However, what has frustrated the BRICS members the most over time and caused their enormous dissatisfaction is the underestimating attitude of the collective West towards them. Instead of the cooperation they offered, they were discreetly or directly relegated to the periphery of the world economy. Of course, this is a short-sighted, reckless policy of the European Union and the United States, if the territorial and population size of the BRICS countries and their economic potential are taken into account.

 

Namely, in summary, BRICS represents a little over 45 percent of the world's population. The combined size of their economies approaches roughly 30 percent of world GDP, which puts them on par with the combined size of the G7 economies, depending on whether size is measured in GDP (gross domestic product) or PPP (parity purchasing power). With Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE as new members, the BRICS countries produce about 44 percent of the world's crude oil.

 

More importantly, in the next few decades, according to current estimates by credible economic and financial experts, the combined size of the BRICS economies will surpass the size of the G7 economies. Despite the aforementioned growing trend, all BRICS members, with the exception of Russia, identify themselves as part of the global south, that is, they feel excluded from the global system dominated by the global north.

 

A response to the behavior of the West

 

Due to the mentioned position of the West towards them, the reaction of the BRICS members followed, which represents a deviation from the original ambitions and goals of the group. A new goal was unanimously declared, namely the creation of a future system of global governance, whereby all countries will have the equal right to express their political and economic interests in global institutions in which no country will dominate the other.

 

The activities of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which the BRICS countries claim are tools in the hands of Western nations whose representatives dominate their governing bodies and thus manipulate the world's money, are responsible for such a sharp change in the course of action.

 

In order to achieve the declared goal, the BRICS countries founded a development bank (New Development Bank) in 2014, whose goal is to lend money to strengthen infrastructure. By the end of 2022, according to credible sources, the New Development Bank has provided almost $32 billion to developing countries for new roads, bridges, railways and water supply projects. Also, own arrangements for the reserve of financial resources for unforeseen situations were established, and the process of mutual trade in domestic currencies was started.

 

 

BRICS wants to get rid of the US dollar

The BRICS seem determined to extricate their economies from the US dollar-based international financial system. First of all, there is the impossibility of control and exposure to the interest rates of the United States, which can have a negative effect on their economies. The dollar-based financial system gives the US significant advantages in the global economy, which the BRICS countries consider unfair.

 

Also, the dollar as a widely accepted means of payment is considered to give Americans hegemonic influence in global affairs, for example, US jurisdiction over all trade or dollar-based investments flowing through US banks or financial institutions. This is why leading politicians, above all in Russia and Brazil, are openly advocating the creation of a common BRICS currency, which would eliminate the dominance of the dollar.

 

For now, due to the marked distinction between the economies of the member countries, observers believe that any introduction of a common currency into the system would be counterproductive, but the possibility of its creation in the future is also not excluded, when it or some cryptocurrency would be used for payments in international trade.

 

 

Attitude towards the war in Ukraine and geopolitical topics

At the last summit of the BRICS group, which was held in August last year in Johannesburg, South Africa, the member countries avoided taking a position on the war in Ukraine, except that mediation aimed at resolving differences through dialogue and diplomacy was welcomed. However, it is a well-known fact that certain member states, such as Iran, openly support Russia, while others, such as China and India, give priority to a peaceful solution to the conflict, with noticeable qualifications of the highest officials of both countries that it is a conflict of regional character.

 

According to their point of view, the West, especially the United States, due to its ambition to weaken the position of the Russian Federation on the geopolitical stage, wants to portray the Ukrainian war as a global conflict in which the Russian side violated the UN Charter, i.e. the norms of the first international, and accordingly it must be isolated from the international community .

 

Chinese and Indian officials claim that the West is not working on de-escalation but, on the contrary, is prolonging the conflict by arming Ukraine. On the other hand, the highest officials of both countries have on several occasions directly or indirectly informed the Russian president, reacting to his harsh stance at the beginning of the war, that any use of nuclear weapons in the conflict is unacceptable for them.

 

As far as other countries are concerned, it should be noted that Egypt and the JAR are part of the African initiative to mediate in order to end the crisis, which is perhaps the first African initiative to mediate in any international conflict at all.

 

Nevertheless, the majority of BRICS members have a much greater interest in promoting and implementing the policy of mid- and long-term transformation of the global macroeconomic and financial system, and Russia's activities in Ukraine actually divert attention from this, in their view, much more important topic, which ultimately causes unnecessary problems and frustrations.

 

Does the rivalry between the two sides mean a new Cold War?

 

Bearing in mind the friction and intolerance that almost every BRICS member individually has with the countries of the West, especially the United States, the question arises as to how much the new declared direction of the group's further action in the international arena is a consequence of a realistic desire to, for example, improve the business-trade-financial positions, and how much is the intention to nullify the global dominance of the West with the logic of bloc opposition. More precisely, can the rivalry between the BRICS and the West be identified with the fundamental features that determined the Cold War?

 

The eastward shift of the center of gravity of global politics and economics is an unstoppable process driven by demographic and economic factors, although Europe and the United States will continue to represent key economic players. In tandem with the changes in the global economy, it is clear that the global political order will also become more multipolar, with China, Europe, India and the United States as some of the main focal points of influence.

 

If the thesis is put forward that the expansion and influence of BRICS in the world will be determined by its efficiency, and not by its size, then one must take into account the fact that the BRICS countries are still in the development phase and that they need a stable environment and flow times in order, for example, to free themselves from the international financial system based on dollars (one of the mentioned declared goals). So, reaching the necessary efficiency requires gradual changes.

 

Connectivity as an obstacle to sharper confrontation

 

Also, the global connectivity of economies is one of the important obstacles to confrontation in the international arena. For example, many BRICS countries, including China, Egypt, India, Saudi Arabia and South Africa, have economies whose prosperity is closely linked to that of the United States, which, if applied to the stated stated goal, means that their interest is in a slow, staged liberation from the old and harmful financial system. Therefore, an approach based on conflict would not work in their favor.

 

The same logic applies to changes in the architecture of global governance. Apart from the Russian Federation, it is in the interest of all other BRICS countries to ensure that changes in the global order take place at an evolutionary pace that does not open up space for instability.

 

If we start from the assumption that the West also likes a stable environment and certainty in international relations, then according to the logic of things, both sides should have much more common interests than some observers suggest. Ultimately, this could significantly distance them from the position of strategic rivals on all fronts.