"Purge" of the population and a new quasi-legal reality: what is Russia preparing for the occupied territories?

As a result of the comprehensive aggression, Russia occupied the territories of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv regions and the new communities of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The conquerors had already begun to establish an illegal system of government, trying to consolidate themselves in the occupied territories.
For now, we can talk about the following approaches of Russia to the management of the occupied territories of Ukraine:

- illegal formations "DNR" and "LNR" delegate their representatives to manage the new occupied communities of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, declaring "belonging" of the entire territory of the two regions to self-proclaimed entities;
- In the occupied territories of Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Kherson, Kharkiv regions, the occupiers announce the "appointment of the chief of military and civilian administrations". At the same time, even from the point of view of propaganda, it is not entirely clear who, how and why, "appointed" them;
- the occupiers are carrying out illegal actions under the guise of gathering citizens in connection with the "temporary accession" of separate communities in the Zaporozhye, Nikolaev or Kharkov regions to the "L / DNR" formations, ie, Crimea;
- The Russians are preparing illegal actions in the form of a referendum to separate the territories of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv region from Ukraine and announcing the threat of "annexation" to Russia;
- The so-called officials in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea are illegally establishing economic, social and economic ties between the occupied peninsula and the territory of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, announcing plans to rebuild the "single economic complex". These actions were intensified by the statements of some deputies of the State Duma about Russia's plans to create the so-called Crimean Federal District;
- information is spreading about the occupiers' plans to hold rallies to imitate the vote on the accession of L / DNR formations to Russia within the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
The occupiers' holistic and universal approach to governance is not yet visible in the temporarily occupied territories. This can be explained by the fact that Russia had more ambitious plans to occupy Ukraine and was preparing for a more serious political scenario.
The SBU specifically reported on the detention in various regions of Ukraine of the organizers of the so-called "federal Ukraine", whose idea was to separate individual regions and declare "independent" entities.
Based on propaganda statements before the invasion, Russia planned to launch a pseudo-political process between "regional states" after occupying most of Ukraine, depriving the country of subjectivity.
From April 2022, according to public announcements, two possible strategies of Russia are being considered.
The first involves the continuation of "patchwork" initiatives, when in some areas it is not known who is "self-determined" about temporary entry into the "L / DNR" or Crimea or "free life", without a clear announcement of the political future of these territories. Such a scenario could potentially preserve the negotiating track that Russia is still interested in. This allows the aggressor state to "withdraw" these illegal actions and avoid direct responsibility for them. At the same time, the occupier can continue to establish "links" between the newly occupied territories of Russia, Crimea and the L / DNR terrorist groups.
The second scenario - the "new quasi-legal reality" - involves a fake referendum on the "declaration of independence" of the territories or even on their accession to Russia.
The second scenario means the failure of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, as the President of Ukraine has already stated, and the emergence of another reason for increasing the sanctions pressure on the aggressor state. However, given Putin's inadequate attempts, the probability of such a scenario is high.
Analyzing the perspective of a pseudo-referendum in terms of national and international law does not make much sense. No one in the world recognizes steps based solely on military force and coercion by the occupiers.
However, their goal is to create imaginary bases for Russia itself to declare the impossibility of liberating these territories.
The calculation is simple: if Russia says that it is their territory (or recognized by them), everyone must, under the threat of a new escalation, de facto accept that fact. In fact, it is the same strategy that was applied in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. First, Russia "recognized" the "L / DNR" within the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and then stated that the agreement with Ukraine is impossible without recognizing the "new" reality, not only in Crimea but also in Donbas.
The events of 2022 are united with the previous scenarios of Crimea and Donbas, not only by illegal PR actions, which Russia calls "referendums". They were preceded by the creation of a new political reality in the occupied territories, which led to large numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons, political persecution, torture and filtering - in fact, purges.
International law and Ukrainian law do not contain any indications that the Russians are realizing their criminal intent.
The Constitution of Ukraine and the Law of Ukraine "On All-Ukrainian Referendum" prohibit any referendum on reviewing the integrity and inviolability of Ukraine within the existing border, and the extension of Ukraine's sovereignty to its entire territory is determined by the Constitution of Ukraine, not to mention the ban on elections and referendums.
At the same time, the Venice Commission Guidelines on Referendums clearly state that the use of referendums should be the subject of the legal system as a whole. In particular, a referendum cannot be held if it is not provided for in the Constitution.
As it has already been said, it is not necessary to analyze how smart a robber is in legal matters. It is important to keep him and bring him to justice.
Rewriting the legal nuances of the planned robbery makes sense only if it is considered a systematic and consistent manifestation of the destruction of the rights and freedoms of Ukrainian citizens. Our fellow citizens are forcibly deprived of the right to participate in the governance of their country, guaranteed by the Universal Declaration of Human Rights of 1948, the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights of 1966 and other international instruments. The real restoration of the constitutional rights of the citizens of Ukraine who found themselves in the temporarily occupied territories is possible only after their release. In this case, according to international law, the occupation of the territory does not give the occupier any rights to it, and the occupied state does not lose sovereignty over its territory.
With the statement about the insignificance of fake referendums, it is important to give guidelines to the citizens of Ukraine on how to act in difficult conditions of occupation:
- First, the citizens of Ukraine must avoid as much as possible any form of participation in the illegal PR campaigns of the occupiers. Of course, the real security conditions and the consequences of coercion need to be taken into account.
- Second, citizens who will participate in organizing and conducting fraudulent referendums (for example, members of commissions) should be aware of the possibility of spending five to 10 years in prison with limited rights to important functions.
There are also recommendations for foreign Ukrainian partners. It is important not only to declare the legal nullity of false referendums, but also to strongly reject the attempts of the aggressors to put them in front of the "fact" of new circumstances.
Practical joining of Russia's illegal actions should bring a warning to the citizens of any country about the inevitability of personal sanctions and other responsibilities for participating in the organization of such actions or their "monitoring". This will, at the very least, put an end to the practice of including downed "political pilots" in Russian criminal actions.