Peace after the summit: is it possible to implement the agreements reached without Russia

We remind you that in the fall of 2022, four days after the liberation of Kherson and the victories in the Kharkiv region, in his online speech at the G20 summit held in Indonesia, Zelensky presented an outline proposal, which later became known as the "peace formula". According to him, the implementation of the 10 points would make it possible to achieve a just peace, ensure adequate punishment of the aggressors and prevent the recurrence of conflicts. As it turned out later, not everyone is ready to work comprehensively. That is why three compromise points were chosen for the first peace summit in Switzerland, which was held without the presence of the Russian Federation. But even for their implementation, experts note, it will be necessary to involve Moscow.

Nuclear security: there is no plan for the de-occupation of ZNPP

After the start of the invasion, the Russian army seized the Chernobyl nuclear power plant (ChNPP) near Kiev. Employees of the Russian state company "Rosatom" came to its territory, made an inventory of equipment and asked what could be taken to the Russian Federation. A modern laboratory with unique equipment, which was bought with EU funds, was robbed.

But in general, they were not interested in the stopped power plant. In contrast to the region of Zaporozhye, which operates in Energodar, which the Russian army also occupied at the beginning of March 2022. The latter has remained under the control of the Russians to this day.

Experts point out that until now there have been no known cases of one country occupying the nuclear power plant of another independent country within the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) conventions, which create the legal framework for the international regime of nuclear and radiation safety. And this is not only fascinating, but also threatens the leakage of radioactive substances, which can lead to a disaster. Currently, the Russians are discussing the possible launch of ZANP and joining the Russian unified energy system. The consequences of such actions can be unpredictable due to the lack of qualified personnel - the station was significantly modernized during the independence of Ukraine, failure to carry out timely preventive repairs and degradation of the protection system, as well as constant hostilities.

Radiation and nuclear safety is the first point of the "peace formula". It says that Russia must end nuclear blackmail and respect international rules for the use of nuclear energy.

"Any use of nuclear energy and nuclear facilities must be protected and environmentally safe. Ukrainian nuclear power plants and facilities, including the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, must operate safely under the full sovereign control of Ukraine and in accordance with the principles of the IAEA and under

its supervision, any threat or use of nuclear weapons in the context of the ongoing war against Ukraine is unacceptable," said the document adopted as a result of the summit.

Independent nuclear energy and safety expert Olha Košarna notes that the position presented in the Bürgenstock Communiqué looks uncertain, somewhat weaker than the IAEA resolutions on the immediate return of the Zaporozhye NPP to Ukrainian control.

What unites the documents is the absence of a de-occupation mechanism. Therefore, even after the summit in Switzerland, the implementation plan for this point is not known.

"It is difficult for me to understand the president's words: 'Ukraine has come close to the de-occupation of the ZNPP,'" says the expert in a commentary for Focus.

"It is currently said that the suspension of the membership of the Russian Federation in the governing body of the IAEA should be considered, South Africa was the only country operating a nuclear power plant that did not even have a research reactor up to standards at the time".

Therefore, there are currently no real restrictions and economic sanctions for Rosato, and the Russian Federation feels unpunished.

"It is necessary to apply international legal mechanisms to stop this nuclear terrorism," continues Olga Košarna.

Food safety: Onion risks remain

"Global food security depends on the uninterrupted production and supply of food. In this sense, free, full and safe commercial navigation, as well as access to the seaports of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, are critical. Attacks on merchant ships in ports and along the entire route, as well as against civilian ports and civilian port infrastructure, they are unacceptable", this is how the position was formed in the final statement regarding the recommendations on the implementation of the second point of the Ukrainian "peace formula".

In other words, it is about safe navigation in the Black and Azov Seas, unhindered access to ports, non-interference of the Russian Federation in these actions. And also - don't use starvation as a weapon. The Russian Federation uses this method of pressure as part of its strategy of waging war against Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is one of the largest producers of agricultural products. Its potential is to supply the world market with about 45 million tons of grain, or 10 percent of the total export of wheat.

According to the expert of the Analytical Center "Ukrainian Strategic Studies", employee of the Center for African Studies Yuriy Olijnik, several African countries, which actually suffer the most from the cessation of grain deliveries, can be involved in negotiations on this point with the Russian Federation. For example, Kenya, whose president William Ruto met with Zelenski in Switzerland. In addition, on the sidelines of the summit, the president spoke with the head of Ivory Coast, Alassane Ouattara.

"There were also representatives of other West African countries at the summit. Some of them are more oriented towards the West than neutral. Some of them feel the threat of Russian influence in West Africa. A representative of South Africa also came to the summit. Even if South Africa was not represented at the level of the head of state, she maintained her neutrality," he tells Focus.

 

Olijnik mentions the blockade of Ukrainian ports in 2022, when grain prices rose, countries began to feel the restrictions. And the food restrictions for Africa are also political. When living standards fall in African countries, protests and riots often begin.

"Grain from Ukrainian and Russian ports was usually the cheapest and most available. The negotiations and the 2023 food agreement somewhat improved the situation. But it improved even more when Russia was deprived of the ability to influence the movement of cargo at least in the western part of the Black Sea where , of course, Ukraine is working. At the same time, the Russian Federation is trying to send grain from the occupied Crimea - it has sent more grain to Egypt (especially stolen grain)," says Olijnik

At the same time, analysts say that, unlike the first, something has already been done to implement the second point of the plan — some agreements have already been implemented. But not only negotiations are important, but further guarantees of return, if not to an agreement on food, then to an agreement to suppress shelling.

"But in Switzerland we heard nothing about instruments, but about declarations," concludes the expert of the Center for African Studies.

Humanitarian direction: how to bring back the military and civilians

"All prisoners of war must be freed through a full exchange. All deported and illegally displaced Ukrainian children, as well as all other illegally detained Ukrainian civilians, must be returned to Ukraine."

Thus, the request for the return of all Ukrainians was recorded.

Dmitro Lubinec, Commissioner for Human Rights of the Supreme Rada, says that the thematic session on the implementation of clause 4 of the "peace formula" was held behind closed doors in Switzerland. Presidents of states, prime ministers, ministers of foreign affairs, national security advisers attended — a total of 39 participants. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Haar Stere moderated. It was official Toronto and Oslo that led the advocacy for the return of prisoners of war, civilian hostages and children.

Lubinec does not reveal the details of the meeting, but assures that they discussed not only release, but also access to places of detention - prisons and detention centers in the occupied territories and territories of the Russian Federation and some new countries that want to be involved in the work on humanitarian issues.

The humanitarian aspect also remains quite complicated, says Anastasija Pantelejeva, head of the war crimes documentation department of the Media Initiative for Human Rights. And above all, due to the lack of even a draft mechanism for the return of detained Ukrainians and concrete negotiators — mediators in the conversation about prisoners of war and civilians.

"We understand that the process continues, the negotiations do not stop, Ukraine manages to return its citizens. But mostly military personnel. And the principle of selecting candidates for exchange is unclear - for example, the Russian Federation does not return the defenders of Mariupol, marines and members of "Azov", and most of them have been in captivity for more than two years," she notes.

And we are not talking about civilians.

"Russia has scattered several thousand captured people throughout its territory in prisons, accusing them of opposing a special military operation, and refuses to return them. They are kept in prisons as criminals, without treatment and subjected to torture. We hear that sometimes the countries of the East join the process exchanges - Turkey, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, but it is not about systematic work on the return of Ukrainian children", says Panteleeva, noting that the peace summit was still good because it once again drew attention to this problem, which, as she believes, it has not yet been sufficiently communicated.