Main goal. What will Russia do next?

After failing to occupy the whole of Ukraine, Russia will try to implement the Novorossiysk version 2.0 project

Buca, Irpin and Gostomel were released, and the competent structures are now working on finding all those who tortured and killed the inhabitants of these cities. Every crime will be documented, witnesses are sought who can clarify the death of every man, I think that all these materials will be collected, cases will be initiated, all these facts will be the basis of international investigation, and therefore, decisions on crimes and war criminals will be made . Moreover, the reasons for initiating such cases are clear and the relevant international institutions have expressed their intention to help us in this process.

Now everything will depend on how efficiently and quickly our bodies will work. It is clear that we have to work in rather difficult conditions, but I think that all executioners will be found and convicted, primarily by international courts for war crimes or crimes against humanity. Our intelligence services know which military units were stationed in this area, so the names and surnames of the commanders of these military units are known. Both they and those who gave them criminal orders - Russia's highest political leadership - will receive the punishment they deserve.

I hope that if our special services, our intelligence agencies are able to reach someone, they will reach them. But it will be quite difficult, because military units stationed in this area have been withdrawn from the territory of Ukraine. They have set out to renew their fighting ability in Belarus and Russia and are likely to return to Ukraine in the near future, but to a different region: they will take part in hostilities in the east. That is why it will be much harder to get to them, but I firmly believe that the necessary evidence will be gathered and I firmly believe in the inevitability of punishment. What happened in Bucha, Irpen and other cities is horrible, but, unfortunately, this may not be the last time we hear and see information about war crimes. I think that as the territories are liberated, we will face such facts many times.

Currently, the Russians do not have the strength and ability to block and attack Kharkiv

The statements of Ukrainian officials that the main military actions in the near future will take place in the south and east are not unfounded. Our intelligence had information that Russia would withdraw its BTG from the Kiev and Chernihiv regions even before it started. Moreover, when the representatives of the Russian delegation presented it as a gesture of good will, saying that they were ready to reduce the intensity of the fighting in Kiev and Chernihiv for the success of further negotiations, they simply stated that the army was preparing to leave.

Why is this being done? Sometime in the third or fourth week of the war, the Russians were stunned to realize that they lacked inspiration, no potential, no skills to attack in different directions at the same time. So they focused on the direction that was important to them.

Why are east and south important?

First, Russia realized that the goal of their so-called special operation - to occupy, occupy and control the entire territory of Ukraine, was not being achieved, so they had to guard their face. That is, if they have to stop this so-called a special operation, say, a peace agreement or a truce, they have to show at least something, and they really need Donbass. Let me remind you that before the Russian invasion, the so-called recognition of the Luhansk People's Republic and the People's Democratic Republic of Ukraine preceded it - and to say that this "liberation" was a key goal they achieved, it is extremely important for them to occupy these territories.

Another thing: the Russians need intensive battles in Donbas in order to fulfill one of the key tasks they set from the very beginning: complete encirclement and destruction of the Ukrainian group in the so-called ecological zone (Operation Allied Forces) in the areas of Lugansk and Donetsk. At the time of the invasion, many of our most capable brigades and most of our weapons were stationed there, so Russia believes that if the allied forces are destroyed, it will significantly weaken the capabilities of the Ukrainian army.

Third, the Russians also need Donbass in order to finally complete the task of capturing Mariupol, which they have not been able to occupy for four weeks. Mariupol is important for them because it is a port and because it is a key point in breaking through the so-called land corridor from Crimea to Donbas. At the same

time, the fighting in Mariupol is difficult, because they are fighting in a fairly dense environment - to move in such conditions, you must have a tangible advantage, and therefore Russia wants to concentrate as many soldiers there.

As far as I understand, Russian troops plan to continue active hostilities the day after tomorrow. Their rotation is gradually coming to an end, that is, they are still able to complete those BTGs that have suffered significant losses. Soldiers from military bases in Armenia and Tajikistan, contingents from Syria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia are being recruited for that, reservists are being mobilized and gradually, for now in small quantities, but they are already concluding agreements with volunteers. So, for this second rotation, they have recruited people so far.

It is also extremely important for them to complete this operation by the end of April in order to reach the administrative borders and then launch an offensive in other directions. What is meant by other areas? Kharkiv, Zaporozhye, Odessa, Mykolaiv. They planned it and those plans did not disappear. Now Russia, since it does not have the possibility to occupy the whole of Ukraine, is actually trying to realize the Novorossiysk project, only in version 2.0, that is, to cut off the southeast from the rest of Ukraine. And he is trying to complete this task by May 9, to report on his heroic successes on May 9, and to be able to impose his conditions on Ukraine in the negotiations, whose key round will take place at about the same time.

What do the Russians want now?

He will intensify the assault on Mariupol first, although it is already quite difficult there. Secondly, they are already gathering resources for the attack on Kramatorsk-Slovyansk from the direction of Balakliya-Izyum in order to try to surround our group in Donbas and prevent it from maneuvering. They will allegedly launch additional strikes in the direction of Zaporozhye and, perhaps, Krivoy Rog, not so much to capture them now, but to shackle part of our armed forces that are there and deprive them of the opportunity to provide material and human resources.

Kharkiv also remained on the list of priorities, but now it is not the main one. They had in part already entered this city, but were expelled from there. They were even tried for treason, because the units of the 58th Army were defeated near Kharkov. Now the Russians do not have the strength and ability to block and

attack Kharkov, so there will be positional battles, but now the main thing for them is Mariupol.

As for the Kherson region and the occupied part of the Zaporozhye region, these are the regions where they are trying to live. For some reason, they hoped that the people who advised them (intelligence, counterintelligence and political advisers, mostly our former citizens, political emigrants) thought for some reason it will be something like in 2014. That there will be bread, salt, carpets, that it will be possible to agree that there will be, if not cooperation, then at least without resistance and the most loyal attitude. And when they were surprised to learn that all this was not happening, but a rather active protest, they decided to change tactics.

In fact, they began to introduce a fairly active occupation regime. What does that mean? Curfew, street patrols, criminal proceedings for resistance to the occupying power, ban on mass rallies. But for all this they will need additional forces and this is one of the reasons why a large-scale invasion seemed unlikely at the time. There were not enough forces and funds for the invasion, the Russians started to lack that at the end of the first week. And most importantly - there were not enough forces and resources to control the territories they would occupy. In order to control the city, they will have to patrol the streets, set up checkpoints, guard critical facilities - railways, roads, military units. They need commands, their own FSB units, counterintelligence services, operas, judges, prosecutors, police, Rosgard and all that huge number of people. And they are gradually gathering these brigades, which will now work, so to speak, in Kherson, Berdyansk, Skadovsk, Henichesk, that is, they are now preparing all that.

The Russians believed for a while that all this would not be necessary, for them it would be done by the local population, local traitors. But they did not find enough police officers, and now everything will be much harder, but it will take time and additional funds. That is what they are doing now.