26.04.2022.

Lukashenko in slavery to the Kremlin. What threatens Belarus?

Putin is now in Ukraine. However, he could once again draw attention to the complete military takeover of Belarus if public resistance to Belarusian interference in Ukraine continues to grow and threatens to undermine Russian influence.

It turned out that Ukraine is not the only country that Russia has planned to invade in recent years. In the summer of 2020, Russia probably made a detailed plan for the invasion and occupation of Belarus, according to information from the Ukrainian military intelligence service.

"Following the rigging of the presidential election in Belarus, the Russian Federation has developed a plan to invade and suppress popular protests," the Central Intelligence Agency of Ukraine's Defense Ministry said in a statement on April 19. In support of their statement, Ukrainian intelligence released a secret Russian military document outlining the rationale and plan for invading Belarus.

The document states that the situation in Belarus "remains tense" after the rigged presidential elections on August 9, 2020. Opposition leader Svitlana Tikhanovska has been accused of allegedly "subversive" actions, as an "opponent" leading a major information campaign to achieve common positions in Western society and fully support actions to forcibly change the "regime" in Belarus. The document claims that if the "escalation of the armed conflict" cannot be prevented, "Russia could be drawn into a regional or complete war with NATO on the European mainland."

The document states "a plan for the regrouping of formations and military units of the First Tank Army in the task zone" for the invasion of Belarus. According to the plan, the troops will be deployed "under the guise of participating in joint exercises with the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus."

There was no independent verification of the accuracy of the information published in Ukraine. Specifically, Ukrainian intelligence claims that the full-scale invasion of Belarus was a very real possibility in the summer of 2020, less than two years before Russia invaded Ukraine.

The existence of a Russian plan to invade Belarus is convincing, given the tense situation in relations between Moscow and Minsk ahead of the presidential elections in Belarus in August 2020. Unlike today's close strategic alliance of Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, in 2019 and the first half of 2020 There were significant tensions in the relationship.

Faced with sanctions and trying to curb the economic downturn, Putin cut Russian subsidies and economic aid to Belarus. Moscow has pressured Belarus to make concessions, such as deploying a new Russian military base, deeper integration of the country's armed forces and adopting a revived economic integration project that would effectively end Belarus' sovereignty.

For his part, Lukashenko resisted these efforts and sought to establish Minsk's relations with the West. In early 2020, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo traveled to Belarus to "normalize" strained relations.

Then, during a meeting with Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei, Pompeo said: "The United States wants to help Belarus build its own sovereign country. Our energy companies are ready to deliver 100 percent of the oil you need at competitive prices. Your country should not be forced to depend on any partner. It is for your prosperity or security. At the time, there were signs that Russian military intelligence, the GRU and the SZR were upset by Lukashenko's attempts to preserve Belarusian independence in an attempt to bring the country closer to the West. In the next two years, the geopolitical situation changed dramatically in favor of Moscow. The brutal suppression of Lukashenko's disagreement after the August 2020 presidential election in Belarus and, as a result, his alienation from the West, have led to growing dependence on the Kremlin. This seems to have eliminated the need for a complete Russian invasion of Belarus.

Putin, without a single blow, got everything he wanted in Belarus. Lukashenko is completely dependent on the Kremlin, which has allowed Russia to do what is tantamount to "soft annexation" of the country. Belarus has become a de facto extension of Russia's Western Military District. This enabled Moscow to expand its economic and political influence in the country.

Belarus is also involved in Putin's war against Ukraine. Although Minsk still sent its troops for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Lukashenko allowed Russia to use Belarus as a springboard for Russian troops. That is how Putin was able to launch air strikes on Ukrainian cities from Belarusian territory.

This supporting role in the conflict raised fears that Russia's dominant position in Belarus could be jeopardized. The Belarusian public strongly opposes the war in Ukraine. "Railway guerrillas" began to operate in the country, and hundreds of Belarusians joined volunteer battalions that fought on the side of Ukraine. As the war continues, the likelihood of internal destabilization in Belarus could increase significantly.