Is Serbia becoming Putin’s new target?

It remains an open question whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has crossed the “red line” set by Donald Trump and whether Washington is ready to impose more painful sanctions against Russia, says former US diplomat John B. Craig, a senior fellow at the Transatlantic Leadership Network in Washington and a member of the advisory board of the Institute for Politics and Economics of Southeast Europe, in an article published by Euronews. He writes that Moscow is waking up the US President’s administration with its continued defiance and irresponsible activities in the neighbourhood. Putin is preparing for a long political battle for influence with Washington, Craig argues. The new target now seems to be Serbia, another Western Balkan country friendly to Russia.

Although Serbia is considered a traditional ally of Russia, it has been revealed that it has been supplying arms to Ukraine – including multi-barrel rocket launchers and mortar shells, allegedly via Bulgaria and the Czech Republic.

This provoked a strong reaction from Moscow, which branded the move a “stab in the back” and a “betrayal”.

On 29 May this year, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service publicly condemned Serbia, Moscow’s second official warning to Belgrade in a month.

Such public statements are rare and indicate a shift from quiet diplomacy to open pressure.

There is also the accusation by Alexander Dugin, the right-wing ideologue often called “Putin’s brain”, who recently said that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic “no longer has legitimacy”. He has also supported the protests in Serbia that have erupted over corruption, negligence and poor construction and have been ongoing since the deadly Novi Sad railway station canopy collapse (1 November 2024). In response to the revelations and growing domestic pressure, Vucic has announced a suspension of all military exports, probably in an attempt to ease tensions both with Moscow and with domestic public opinion.

Geopolitical implications

A possible “breakthrough” in relations between Russia and Serbia could be a turning point. While Belgrade has been trying to balance East-West for years, Ukraine’s indirect arming could be a red line for Moscow.

Serbia is also a key player in the region. Any internal turmoil or external pressure (whether from Russia or the EU) could have wider implications for the whole of the Western Balkans.

The reference to “long-term political struggles for influence”, which is Putin’s broader strategy, shows that Russia still sees the Balkans as part of its sphere of interest and will react harshly to any rapprochement with the West.

What is Dugin’s role? Although he has no official position, Dugin’s statements often reflect the tone of the Kremlin. His outspoken criticism of Vucic suggests that Russia could support the opposition or destabilise the government if Vucic were to move even closer to the West.

The US diplomat believes that Putin, in addition to arming Ukraine, also disliked Serbia’s important agreements with the West. Last July, Serbia, the EU and Germany signed an agreement on the battery supply chain which gave the EU access to raw materials sourced in Serbia. With significant deposits of lithium, particularly in the Jadar Valley, Serbia has the potential to become a major supplier of the key battery metal in Europe. The agreement was praised by then German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as a mega project that could reduce Europe’s dependence on China. If implemented, the $2.4 billion (€2 billion) lithium Jadar project could meet 90% of Europe’s current lithium needs. What does the agreement involve and why is it geopolitically important?

Serbia is committed to developing the infrastructure for the extraction, processing and export of lithium, cobalt and other raw materials needed for batteries in electric vehicles. The agreement aims to reduce the EU’s dependence on China for rare metals and critical minerals, which puts Serbia in an important position within Europe’s green industry. German companies, including probably Volkswagen and BASF, are working together to transfer technology, develop the mining industry and improve environmental standards.

Why does this anger Putin?

This agreement ties Serbia more closely to the EU economic sphere and distances it from Russia’s sphere of influence. Serbia is thus positioning itself as a supplier of Western green industries, in direct contrast to Russia’s fossil fuel-based economic model.

For years, Russia has used its energy exports and infrastructure projects (e.g. gas pipelines) for political influence in Serbia and the Balkans. Serbia’s inclusion in Western green technology supply chains weakens Russia’s economic and energy influence.

Lithium is thus the “new oil” and control of its supply and processing is becoming a national security issue for the major powers.

Serbia has one of the largest lithium deposits in Europe (the Jadar Valley), which has been the subject of fierce protests over environmental issues, and is now becoming part of the EU’s strategic plan for raw materials.

Putin’s wider concerns

Russia sees such agreements as a loss of control over key territories in the region that were once firmly linked to Moscow.

In the Kremlin’s eyes, Serbia is distancing itself not only politically but also strategically, further deteriorating relations and opening the way for a tougher Russian response.

In Belgrade, tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets, fearing irreversible pollution in the Jadar Valley, despite warnings from officials that it was all part of an alleged plot to overthrow President Vucic and his government.

Many carried flags in the colors of the combined Russian and Serbian tricolor.

Although Putin may have been hoping to find huge lithium reserves in Serbia, Craig points out, it was only last week that Russian troops took control of one of the most valuable lithium deposits in Ukraine, near the village of Shevchenko in the Donetsk region. This leaves only two of the four lithium deposits in central Ukraine under government control.

Serbia, as we recall, also signed a EUR 2.7 billion deal at the end of August last year to buy Rafale fighter jets from the French company Dassault Aviation, a significant shift in the country’s security and political orientation – away from Russia, its traditional ally and arms supplier.

Finally, the Board of Directors of the US company EXIM has approved a preliminary commitment of $50 million (€42.8 million) to the Serbian Telekom Group to support the preparation and launch of their 5G telecommunications network. This transaction further strengthens EXIM’s China Transformational Export and Countermeasures Program (CTEP), as the security of 5G networks is a high priority for the US government and one of the ten key areas of transformational exports that EXIM supports. All this may be enough for Moscow to decide to try to destabilise the government in Belgrade./ The Geopost/