Is a coup coming? Three months after the invasion, Russia's elites are increasingly critical of Putin

Exactly three months have passed since May 24, the day when Russian dictator Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine, which Russia still calls a "special operation." He has become an exile and a war criminal for the world, and dissatisfaction with Putin is growing inside Russia.
The Ukrainian portal NV summed up new information about the prevailing mood among the Russian elite and Vladimir Putin's entourage at the end of the third month of the invasion of Ukraine.

Russia's military failures in Ukraine: how Putin's "hawks" and circles of power react

To date, in the highest circles of Russia, "there is probably almost no one" satisfied with Vladimir Putin, writes the Medusa portal on May 24, citing a source close to the Kremlin. "Business and many civil servants are dissatisfied with the fact that the president started the war without thinking about the scale of the sanctions. "The hawks are not satisfied with the pace of the 'special operation.' They believe it is possible to act more decisively," he said.
His words for the publication were confirmed by two other people close to the Presidential Administration (AP), as well as two interlocutors close to the Russian government.
Sources close to the AP say that Medusa clarifies that the attitude of the "hawks" (primarily the security forces) is as follows: "According to them, if they are already involved, it is impossible to give up. We must act more firmly."
"The" harder "option involves a broad mobilization of reservists and a war" to victory "- ideally before the capture of Kiev," explains the author.
However, according to Medusa's interlocutors, the Kremlin is not ready to announce a general mobilization. Moreover, back in April, the results of closed public opinion polls in Russia showed that even Russians who support the Kremlin's special operation are not ready to fight alone or send their relatives to the front, sources close to the AP told the publication.
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which publishes detailed reports on the fighting and important aspects of the war in Ukraine on a daily basis, analyzes its growing criticism of the Kremlin over its failure by Russian nationalist and military circles.
As an example, ISW cites a May 19 statement by the All-Russian Officers' Assembly calling on Putin and Russian authorities to declare mobilization and recognize a "full-scale war" with Ukraine, as well as to impose a state of emergency in border regions and extend military service for two years. . At the same time, the appeal expresses dissatisfaction with the fact that "the flow of hostilities [in Ukraine] was very far from the aforementioned goals", and "the last straw" was the defeat of Russian troops on the Northern Donets near Belogorovka, where Russian troops suffered unacceptably large losses in manpower and lost large quantities of military equipment.
The statement is full of propaganda about "Ukrainian-Bandera fascists", but ISW experts remind that three weeks before the invasion of Ukraine, the All-Russian Officers' Assembly demanded recognition of the independence of DNR and LNR, strengthening the ideological basis for the attack on Ukraine.
Thus, a new appeal to Putin "may be a key indicator that elements of the Russian government and society are creating the conditions for announcing partial mobilization." "However, the Kremlin has so far refused to do so - probably for fear of a backlash within the country and shortcomings in Russia's mobilization system," the institute said, suggesting the Kremlin probably still does not want to mobilize in the short term.
"More and more Russians supporting the Kremlin and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are beginning to openly criticize the Kremlin," ISW said, recalling a recent wave of sharp criticism among Russian military bloggers. Experts of the Institute refer to the assessments of their colleagues from the British Ministry of Defense, who believe that if Russia's losses in Ukraine continue to grow, "it will be increasingly difficult to hide them and that public dissatisfaction will grow."
The mood in the powerful elites of the Russian Federation was assessed by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kiril Budanov, in a recent interview for the EU. According to him, Russian military circles "generally support the war." "However, they are not eager to continue the fight, given the significant losses they are suffering. As much as the propaganda lied, the military knows what its real losses are
Budanov also spoke about the evolution of the attitude towards the war in the ranks of the FSB and other Russian intelligence services. Some of their representatives initially supported the "special operation" in order to hide the huge costs of preparing the ground for it in Ukraine, and hoping that "the war will save everyone". 
"Besides, they believed that they would take Kyiv in three days, and on the tenth day they would complete the entire military operation in Ukraine. It was their dream. But the dream did not come true - said Budanov.
Complaints of business circles about sanctions and economic blow to Russia, loss of influence of oligarchs
The other wing of those who are dissatisfied with Putin's actions, albeit for other reasons, are many "civilian" Russian officials and representatives of the business elite - the so-called "peace party". According to Medusa, citing sources, those in these ranks are embarrassed that they do not see the Kremlin's real steps to achieve peace with Ukraine, but point to a number of economic difficulties.
"The problems are already visible, and in the middle of the summer they will simply spread from different directions: transport, medicine, even agriculture. "Nobody thought about such a scale," said Medusa's interlocutor close to the Russian government.
According to him, before the war, no one in the Kremlin considered the option of completely refusing European countries to import Russian gas and oil. Such an embargo is being discussed in the Russian leadership, although Putin and the "militant" part of his entourage still do not believe that the West is implementing such a scenario, according to the interlocutors.
"Putin simply does not want to think about the economic difficulties that are obvious to most officials, and even more he does not want to link them to the war," Medusa wrote, citing two sources close to the AP.
That is why pessimistic feelings prevail in the circles of the Russian government.
"You can't live like before, we can't talk about development. But one can somehow live - gray imports, trade with China and India, "said a source close to the government.
This information is also confirmed by the data of Kirill Budanov, who said that the Russian business elite is "quite pragmatic about the war".
"Russian business clearly understands losses. They oppose the war and want to end it somehow. "As they say, they are existentially against what is happening in Ukraine, against the atrocities committed by the Russians here," Budanov said.
The head of the Ukrainian GUR reminded that Russian businessmen "lose a lot of money", so they oppose the war.
"However, they do not dare to say that openly to Putin. Such conversations take place among themselves. "Such talks are being held even between business and security forces, between business and politicians," Budanov said.
The influential German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung recently published a report on how large-scale sanctions have changed relations between the Kremlin and Russian oligarchs, practically depriving them of not only property, but also influence in Russia.
The FAZ states that now the oligarchs are de facto more dependent on Putin than he is on them. He reminds that the financial activities of the richest people in Russia have come under the control of the West, so their dependence on Putin's political power, which the oligarchs need to hide their capital, has increased.
"As the war in Ukraine continues, the Kremlin will have increasing incentives to confiscate part of its property directly or indirectly. That is why Russian oligarchs may face a painful dilemma about confiscating or destroying their property, "FAZ writes.
And while some oligarchs, such as Rosneft President Igor Sechin, are really needed by the Russian regime, others need much less.
"Inclusion on the Western sanctions list could provide an excellent opportunity for the Kremlin to take away their power or property," the German paper said, predicting the possibility of "reorganizing the Russian oligarchy within the country."
The paper expects increased Kremlin pressure on the oligarchs "to force them to directly or indirectly finance Russia's military efforts."
"The power of Russian oligarchs is declining, which reduces the likelihood that they will be a decisive factor in regime change in Russia," writes the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
Silent dissatisfaction of the elites, chances for a coup, hopes for "life after Putin" and rumors about the health of the dictator.
After three months of war, Russian elites are increasingly discussing the topic of "the future after Putin", say Medusa's interlocutors close to the AP and the government.

"It's not that they want to overthrow Putin now and are plotting. But there is an understanding or desire that he will not rule the country in the near future ", explained one of the sources of the portal.
In a similar context, Kirilo Budanov, the head of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, assessed the possibility of a change of government in Russia. According to him, the coup in Russia is "unreal", but its shadows are real.
Budanov reminded that the dissatisfaction of the wider population, even if it grows, "as no one was interested before, so it is not interested now."
"But Putin's immediate entourage, which is now a financial branch, has lost a lot because of the war. And so they are looking for a way out of the situation. For them, the easiest way out of the situation is to replace Putin with another person. For example, Russia is not to blame for all the problems, but one person - Putin. And also, to say that he was a sick dictator, remove all sanctions, remove all restrictions, we are starting to live again, I am to blame for everything ", Budanov emphasized.
As for information about a possible "shadow coup", one of Medusa's sources reported that the Kremlin is secretly discussing the numbers of possible presidential successors. Including Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev, AP First Deputy President Sergei Kiriyenko (recently in regular contact with Putin since he recently became the Kremlin's new "curator" of Donbas) - some Medusa sources believe Kiriyenko wants to be at least prime minister ; others are convinced that his activity is trying to prove the effectiveness of the position in the AP.
However, Medusa's interlocutors emphasize that Russian elites, even when it comes to any hypothetical successors, are convinced that Putin can resign from the presidency only if his health seriously deteriorates. Therefore, the dissatisfaction of high-ranking officials is not manifested in anything but mutual conversations. According to a source close to the Russian government, "people are spitting, but they are still working, putting the country on military lines."
Kiril Budanov, who previously said that the Russian dictator has cancer, confirmed such data in a new interview for the EU - although he warned that one should not expect Putin's imminent death.
"Yes, we fully confirm this information. There are several serious diseases, one of which is cancer. But it is not worth hoping that Putin will die tomorrow. There are at least a few more years. "Whether we like it or not, it's true," Budanov said.
He also claims that there have already been attempts to assassinate Putin, the last time about two months ago.
"This is information that is not public. An absolutely unsuccessful attempt, but it really happened ", assured the head of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

Who is now in Putin's inner circle and can he relinquish power

According to Budanov, the Russian dictator "significantly reduced his access to himself".
"This is a done deal. He keeps everyone else at a distance, "said the head of the Ukrainian GUR.

According to Medusa, Putin's "inner circle" now includes, among others, the first deputy president of the AP, Sergei Kiriyenko, and the president of Rosguard, Viktor Zolotov.
"Now there are those who are participating in the war in Ukraine - they are leading troops, dealing with Donbass. "These people can cross the 'red line', that is," wake up "the president," said one of Medusa's interlocutors.
At the same time, Putin himself, according to Budanov, was already thinking about choosing a successor "and in principle he chose, as they say, the favorite - there were already several of them." However, the dictator is restrained by fears of losing power, according to the head of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
"Looking at some of his manic syndromes, he is probably afraid to seriously prepare a successor, realizing that during training this successor may want to sit in a chair a little earlier than Putin himself wants. That's why he keeps everything at a certain distance. And he believes he will rule forever But it will not be so, "says Budanov.
 The head of the Ukrainian intelligence service reminded that all dictators of the last decades "ended their journey equally", and suggested that Putin would end it in the same way - not of his own free will.
Richard Dirlaw, the former head of Britain's MI-6 intelligence service (who ran it from 1999 to 2004), presented his version of Putin's overthrow on May 23 on the One Decision podcast. According to him, the change of government in Russia will happen before the beginning of 2023 and, probably, without violence. Dirlaw believes that Putin can be sent "to a sanatorium, from which he will not come out as the leader of Russia."
"We are nearing the end of this regime in Russia," Dirlaw said.