IRI report: China and Russia in Montenegro use divisions to spread misinformation, promote agendas...

 

The increasingly strong ties between Russia and China are part of a growing network of authoritarian actors working to undermine democracy globally, exploiting weak governments and strengthening corruption in other countries, according to a report by the Washington-based International Republican Institute (IRI), in which nine countries analyzed include Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH).

The authors of the study state that the interests of China and Russia overlap, but that the two countries have so far mostly followed different paths in order to weaken democratic institutions and strengthen autocratic governance.

"We found that despite the increased ties, the goals of Russia and China remain very different," Caitlin Dearing Scott, director of the Countering Authoritarian Influence Program at IRI, told VOA.

"For the Chinese Communist Party, it is still a desire to create a world that is safe for the party, one in which China's version of governance is acceptable. It is all about its domestic goals. For Russia, its primary goals are fueling instability and undermining alliances that seek to oppose it. its influence at the regional and global level," she explains and adds:

"China favors economic engagement as its entry point for political influence, while Russia shows much more strength in terms of military security and overt political approaches."

According to the report, China and Russia in Montenegro use deep divisions in the population and media to promote their agendas, spread disinformation through ethnically divided media, and use propaganda "spread by pro-Serbian/pro-Russian/pro-government media" to highlight the Sino-Russian alliance as a superior alternative to the liberal world order.

In Serbia, the report states, the two countries are taking advantage of a highly centralized and captive state, and are attracting "very willing government officials and local leaders, to the detriment of democracy." At the same time, Russia is relying on historical and cultural ties, and China is moving from business agreements to more direct influence in other sectors, "causing democratic values through economic means."

Valbona Zenelli, a senior associate of the Atlantic Council from Washington, says that what is happening on the global level is manifested in the Western Balkans "in the sense that we have a new era of partnership without restrictions between Russia and China".

"I believe the difference between the two countries is that Russia is a disruptor, it wants to disrupt the rules-based international order, while China needs it to continue its economic rise, although it wants to change standards and rules," Zeneli explains.

 

After Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in China in May, the two countries pledged to deepen their strategic partnership, accusing the US of threatening them. China and Russia have been trying to reduce the role of the US in international relations for years.

"The emerging multipolar world ... is taking shape before our eyes," Putin said after visiting China.

Zeneli tells Voice of America that the cooperation between China and Russia in the Western Balkans is clearly visible in several aspects: Serbia is their main partner, both countries criticize NATO and use disinformation campaigns.

"Russia has been using them for a long time, trying to undermine the Euro-Atlantic integration of the region, criticizing the USA and the EU, but also NATO. And we saw that from China during the Covid-19 pandemic," says Zeneli. "The rise of skepticism and the pushing of narratives criticizing the EU and Western actors for insufficient support for the Western Balkans. I believe we will see more of that."

 

Most connections in the information sector

The IRI report notes that narrative creation is a primary area of joint influence and coordination between Russia, China and other authoritarian actors

"Some repeat the other's propaganda and do it in a circle where Rasha Tudej retweets Xinhua and Xinhua retweets Rasha Tudej as some kind of evidence," says Deering Scott. "But mostly we've found that it's not necessarily strategic. So, while there are mechanisms for media coordination between China and the Kremlin, in practice it's mostly opportunism where there are similar goals."

During Xi Jinping's recent visit to Serbia, the two sides committed to a "common future", and a number of media agreements were concluded, including between the news agencies Tanjug and Xinhua. A few days later, as part of Putin's visit to China, Xinhua renewed the cooperation agreement with the Russian TASS agency.

"The main concern with such agreements is that they present an obviously one-sided story. The People's Republic of China and its affiliated media, as well as the Kremlin and Kremlin-affiliated state media, are tools of the government to project its side of the story," says Dearing Scott.

In the IRI report, it is recalled that the media in Serbia publish the contents of Raš Tudej and Sputnik, as well as Xinhua, which are then taken over by other media from the region. Analyzes of media content over the years show that China and Russia are mostly presented positively in Serbia.

In addition to the media, politicians also give open support to Russia, such as Milorad Dodik in BiH or Aleksandar Vulin in Serbia. Both are under US sanctions.

"The concern is that China's increased involvement and the Kremlin's long-standing involvement enables and facilitates authoritarian backsliding. It gives legitimacy and cover to authoritarians in those countries that are already inclined to use such tactics," says Deering Scott. "Both actors have used the perceived reduced engagement of the US and the European Union (EU) to promote narratives that not only undermine democracy, but also a turn towards the EU."

 

Paul McCarthy, director for Europe at IRI, said in an interview with Voice of America that it is partly about perceptions, and partly there is truth in the fact that the West is not engaged enough in the Western Balkans, citing as an example that the US has left the leading role to the EU - which hardly harmonizes the positions of 27 members.

"I think the EU has had problems unifying its message in the context of access to the Western Balkans and most importantly – joining the EU. I think the EU speaks too often with too many voices, and China and Russia have taken advantage of that," says McCarthy.

The IRI survey conducted in February and March showed that in all countries except Serbia, more than half of those questioned in the referendum would immediately vote for EU accession.

However, although the majority of respondents from BiH, North Macedonia and Montenegro declared that they wanted a foreign policy of their countries directed towards the EU and the West, a significant percentage stated that they wanted an equal relationship with Russia and the West or a pro-Russian foreign policy. In Serbia, only 10% of respondents were primarily in favor of pro-Western policy, while more than half were in favor of an equal relationship or a foreign policy directed towards Russia.

Russian invasion of Ukraine

One of the points in the IRI report is that the growing ties between the Chinese and Russian presidents are best illustrated by China's support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as well as increased economic and military ties between the two countries.

So far, China has not been identified as providing Russia with direct military aid, but US officials say Moscow receives chips, machine tools and other technology from Beijing that it uses to manufacture weapons and military equipment.

Due to Western sanctions, Russia's trade with China is much higher than before the invasion of Ukraine, but while China was Russia's largest trading partner in 2023, Russia is only China's sixth largest. Experts say that this is one of the indicators that the relationship between the two countries is not equal.

In an interview for the Voice of America's Russian newsroom, Anne Appelbaum, a journalist and historian, said that China is not comfortable with a major destabilizing conflict.

"I think they have an interest in weakening Russia – a weaker Russia has to sell them oil and gas at lower prices. A weaker Russia is a more pliable ally, a weaker player on this stage, and maybe that's what they're hoping for," says Appelbaum. "It is already quite clear that Russia is a junior partner in this alliance, which we could not have imagined a few decades ago."

China is often offered as a mediator in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. In 2023, it announced a 12-point peace plan, which was quickly rejected by Ukraine and the West because it did not involve Russian forces leaving the occupied territories.

During Putin's visit to Beijing, Xi said that China supports an international peace conference "to be recognized by Russia and Ukraine, at an appropriate time, with equal participation and a fair discussion of all options."

 

Putin said Moscow appreciates Beijing's "objective, fair and balanced position".

Foreign policy experts say that China presents itself as neutral, but that its proposals are in favor of Russia, and they also see as a problem that Beijing is equating Russia and Ukraine - even though Russia invaded.

Ali Wein, a senior researcher and adviser to the International Crisis Group, told VOA Ukraine that the strengthening of China-Russia relations has harmed China's ties in Europe, which is why China is trying to portray itself as a "credible diplomatic mediator between Russia and Ukraine."

It is in this context, Wayne says, that Xi chose the countries he visited in May: French President Emmanuel Macron has in the past spoken of Europe's greater strategic autonomy [relative to the US], while "authoritarian countries" Hungary and Serbia "are far more open to Chinese investment and diplomacy than many other European countries".

Zeneli says that Russian involvement in the Western Balkans has increased especially after 2014 and the first Russian invasion of Ukraine, which further escalated after the second invasion, in February 2022.

In the IRI survey, the majority of respondents in BiH believed that Russia was responsible for the war in Ukraine (34%), and in Montenegro (34%) and North Macedonia (38%) that all parties were responsible for the war. Respondents from Serbia most often answered that the West was responsible for the war (43%), while only 6% of respondents attributed responsibility to Russia.

"That is one of the key areas where China and Russia globally, especially in the Balkans, are in agreement to tell that story," says Dearing Scott, adding that the Chinese media repeats the Kremlin's propaganda about Russia not wanting to occupy Ukraine, about biolaboratories in Ukraine territories and other false narratives directed against the USA and NATO.

"This is then spread by the state media from Serbia, and Serbia dominates the regional media market. So the pro-Russian and pro-Chinese narratives that were originally spread in Serbia begin to influence the political and social discourse in BiH, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and even in Kosovo ", adds Dearing Scott.

 

 

CONCLUSION

 

Although the title of the text suggests that the report refers only to Montenegro, it essentially refers to the countries of the Western Balkans, but to a large extent it also talks about the joint efforts of China and Russia to change the global world order and create it according to their own discretion, which through various types of propaganda and pressure they are trying to expand in other countries asking for their support. China and Russia use different tools in their efforts to gain influence in other countries, but they have a common goal. Through various forms of support for politicians (primarily right-wing, prone to autocracy), non-transparent lending and investments (which is especially characteristic of China), intelligence and propaganda activities, they try to create instability in the countries of the Western Balkans and spread their own (basically anti-Western and anti-democratic attitudes).

We are witnessing that the Russian and Chinese media have been spreading common narratives in the countries of the Western Balkans for years, which are mainly directed against the EU and the USA. It is also a fact that in the countries of the Western Balkans, for the most part, there is no will of the ruling structures to limit the activities of China and Russia, to use the appropriate tools and legislation so that their activities are in accordance with domestic and international legislation.