How Russian propaganda scares Ukrainians with demographic crisis and migrants

In fact, Ukraine, like other European countries, especially Eastern European ones, is facing demographic problems. The total population of the country has been decreasing since 1993. Before the full-scale Russian invasion, in 2021 the fertility rate - an indicator that reflects the average number of children that a woman would give birth to during her lifetime, if the current fertility levels in Ukraine were maintained - was, according to the Ministry of Social Policy, 1.16. At the same time, the reproduction rate, that is, the preservation (not growth) of the population - is 2.1-2.2. The closest Ukraine came to this level since 1993 was in 2012, when the ratio was 1.53. However, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the fertility rate in Ukraine fell to the lowest values in history - 0.8-0.9. Such indicators are also among the lowest in the world - they are lower only in South Korea and Taiwan.

The low level of natural population renewal is also supplemented by increased mortality due to the war and its consequences, as well as migration from the country. According to estimates by the Center for Economic Strategy, as of November 2024, 5.2 million Ukrainian refugees remained abroad. Most of those who left are working-age adults and children, which exacerbates the trend of population aging and, accordingly, the tax burden on those who remain to work in Ukraine.

According to estimates by former Deputy Minister of Social Policy Daria Marchak, now Deputy Minister of Economy, the shortage of workers in the economy will amount to four to five million in the coming years. Such a demographic situation in the country is, in particular, a consequence of the hostilities initiated by Russia. Due to the need for additional labor in Ukraine, discussions have begun on attracting migrants from other countries. While active hostilities continue in the country, this issue remains largely hypothetical.

However, Russian propaganda is already using this topic to intimidate Ukrainians, demoralize and divide society, and shift the responsibility for the disastrous consequences of the war onto Ukraine itself. External "injections" of information and internal fears of Ukrainians from the "inflow of foreigners" are used for this. Ukrainian xenophobia and Russian propaganda go hand in hand.

The Media Detector Research Center has recorded an increase in the number of posts on Russian and propaganda Telegram channels with disinformation and manipulations regarding the possible arrival of labor migrants from other countries to Ukraine.

From January 1, 2023 to November 18, 2025, we recorded 811 posts on Russian and pro-Russian Telegram channels related to the hypothetical participation of migrants in the Ukrainian labor market. Of these, 346 appeared between January 1 and November 18, 2025. The search query was in Russian. It contained: the name of the state of Ukraine and fictional variants of its name used in Russian propaganda; derivatives of the verbs: import, bring, include; as well as derivatives of the concepts “migrant” and “immigrant”.

“Demographic loan and lease” from the poorest countries in the world

One of the most common narratives in propaganda Telegram channels is the direct intimidation of the audience with the possibility of “replacing” Ukrainians with migrants. These statements are built around the thesis that the Kiev authorities are allegedly deliberately “leaving” the country to foreigners in order to solve urgent demographic and economic problems, while devaluing the lives and future of the indigenous population. The fear of losing their jobs, cultural identity, and the status of “masters of their own land” is presented as a reality that nothing can stop.

A typical set of arguments looks like this: Ukrainians are dying en masse, fleeing, or refusing to work due to mobilization, which is destroying the economy. And instead of stimulating the return of refugees and the birth rate, the authorities choose the “easiest way” - “importing” cheap labor from Asia and Africa. All this is accompanied by emotional formulations such as “Ukraine without Ukrainians”, “territory for migrants”, “cheap labor market”, “Ukraine is a country for keeping migrants”, “Ukrainians are unnecessary”, etc.

The Resident channel, which has 999,000 subscribers and, according to the Security Service of Ukraine, is coordinated by the Russian special service, wrote: “The loss of population is no longer a consequence of the war, but the final stage of a multi-year process that began long before the military conflict. Human resources cannot be compensated for by lend-lease or subsidies.” At the same time, propagandists emphasized that “time is against Bankova.” Another post on this channel stated that the demographic crisis allegedly has only political reasons, and its solution depends on the “political will” of the presidential office: “Zelensky is on the way to replacing its population with migrants. In just a few years, the country risks turning into a territory without its own future - where migrants will work instead of Ukrainians who left (as well as those who died at the front), and the very idea of national revival will remain only in the speeches of populists.”

The channel “Legitimni” (1.1 million subscribers), which is linked to the Russian special services, threatened: “Everything points to the fact that Ukrainians will be massively replaced by migrants (Asians and Arabs). The Cabinet of Ministers proposes to simplify the procedure for hiring foreigners in Ukraine. In short, upon official employment, they will immediately receive a permanent residence permit (permanent residence status - DM)”. Propagandists from another Telegram channel linked to the Russian special services, “Spletnicia” (158,000 subscribers), “warn”: “Zelensky plans to bring millions of young, often uneducated men from a country with a high population growth rate. What will be the result in one or two generations? We will become a national minority in our own land. Conflicts cannot be avoided. And who will resolve them? Our police, which is already unable to cope with corruption?”

The author of the channel “Montyan!” (399,000 subscribers) claims that living conditions in Ukraine are so unfavorable that migrants simply will not want to come here. The most vulnerable Asians or Africans will probably come to Ukraine and, they say, will only worsen the situation: “Ukraine is too poor to attract migrants en masse: the conditions here are such that they will only attract residents of completely impoverished countries in Africa and Asia, whose attraction will create more problems than it will solve.”

In a post on the TG channel, a network of platforms maintained by Russian propagandists, “Nabljudatel” (103 thousand subscribers), they assured that “qualified specialists choose Poland and Germany, and those who are ready to work for a pittance will come to us. For food. Ukraine will turn into a cheap labor market, where it is unprofitable to give birth to your own children, and profitable to use someone else’s.”

This message is built on a classic set of propaganda techniques: the theory of the "great replacement" of the ethnic enclave with "wild hordes", hyperbolizing the real figures by tens of times, where the number of work visas issued by Ukraine is replaced by fabricated information about "tens of millions of migrants" who have arrived or will arrive in Ukraine. This is done in order to demonize the authorities, which are allegedly deliberately destroying the Ukrainian people.

Such manipulation is aimed at at least three audiences: Ukrainians abroad, in order to finally discourage the desire to return; men within the country, in order to increase mistrust and avoid the mobilization and audience of the propaganda media, which shares the views inculcated by Russian propaganda, in order to incite hatred and a sense of Russian "civilizational superiority".

"Zelensky and company are not interested in the fact that the Ukrainian nation will simply disappear".

Propaganda is constructing a controversy in Ukraine regarding the attraction of labor migrants as a point of political division. Where on one side are those in power, and on the other - right-

wing politicians, populist politicians and the ethnic Ukrainian population. To do this, propagandists, as a rule, give their interpretations to the news. For example, in August 2025, the rules for crossing the border for men under 23 years old were changed. They could travel abroad. On this occasion, in October, the propaganda Telegram channel “Splitnica” with 158,000 subscribers, and then in Russian propaganda publications, quoted the words of the mayor of Ivano-Frankivsk Ruslan Marcinkiv, that due to the possibility of young men leaving, construction, communal and transport enterprises have lost many workers. “Martsinkiv, of course, can reason “from his bell tower”, but the decision has already been made on Bankova Street - Ukrainians who die at the front will not be replaced by women, but by migrants. "And 'Zelensky and company' don't care that the Ukrainian nation will simply disappear, and the country will turn into a dumping ground for migrants from third world countries... So, the authorities don't see a problem with the loss of national identity, and when the Ukrainians run out, they will bring more Arabs, Africans and Asians into the country," they wrote in the propaganda Telegram channel.

The same “Splitnica” developed the topic of “government tricks” to change the electorate base:

“The paradox is that all this is presented as an economic necessity, although in reality it is about the transformation of the country and, possibly, the electorate. If migrants really start issuing passports, which is being discussed behind the scenes, then they will become a new political support for the current government. Ukraine risks not getting a demographic salvation, but a British scenario: with multicultural neighborhoods and foreign rules, to which illiterate natives with wives in niqabs will begin to accustom Ukrainians”.

In this presentation, representatives of other cultures who can come to live in Ukraine are opposed to the local population as foreigners. Although formally, Ukrainian legislation today does not restrict the possibility of becoming citizens of Ukraine for people who were born and raised in other countries and cultures. And the presence of people of other cultures in Ukraine, according to the results of the survey “Socio-political mood of Ukrainians. October 2025”, is not one of the key problems associated with the consequences of Russian military aggression against Ukraine. Ukraine, too, is not included in the lists of countries with a large share of migrants in the population. Despite this, Russian and propaganda Telegram channels attribute xenophobia and fear of migrants to Ukrainian citizens.

 

Conspiracy theories and Islamophobia in propaganda narratives about migrants

Another narrative of Russian propaganda in anonymous Telegram channels is the imposition on the audience of the idea that the “replacement” of Ukrainians with foreign labor migrants is allegedly part of a conscious political agreement between the Ukrainian authorities and European partners. According to the logic of agitprop, Europe is behind the import of migrants from Southeast Asian countries, because the outflow of youth and losses during the war in Ukraine create jobs that need to be filled by foreigners - so this is an “opportunity” to get rid of European migrants by “redirecting” them to Ukraine.

It is precisely these theses in anonymous Telegram channels that accompany quotes from former government officials such as former Economy Minister Timofey Milovanov or former Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, who spoke about the demographic crisis in Ukraine and the needs of the labor market. Of course, the responsibility is shared between the Ukrainian authorities and the EU: "Migrants are being brought from India and Bangladesh... This process is beneficial both for Europe, which dumps excess migration into a "buffer" country, and for the elites in Kiev, which receive a new resource for playing in the Western arena," wrote the authors of the anonymous "Nablyuditel" channel with an audience of more than 100,000 subscribers.

The propaganda telegram channel “Legitimni” with more than one million and one hundred thousand subscribers wrote that the Ukrainian authorities allegedly have clear plans and quotas for the entry of migrants every year, until 2030, and that this idea itself is allegedly “sanctioned” by the EU: “The EU then wants to send all migrants from Europe to Ukraine for “detention”. In this way, the Europeans will clean themselves at our expense, and we will become an even bigger pit”. At the same time, in various publications, propagandists are confused and do not provide any evidence of the existence of such government plans, referring only to rumors and “insider information”. For example, in one of the publications they plan to “bring” two million migrants by 2030, and in another post on the same channel - already 10 million: “According to the plan of the Soroys/globalists and Bankova, by 2030 more than two million migrants will be brought to Ukraine, and Zelensky also gave verbal consent that Europe can send its migrants to Ukraine to work”. There is no information in open sources about the Ukrainian government’s plans to introduce annual quotas for attracting foreigners. In similar variations, this thesis about the “benefits” of the alleged population replacement was repeated in various analyzed Telegram channels: “Ukrainians are written off as “exploited”, and their places are taken by newcomers. This process is beneficial both for Europe, which dumps excess migration into a “buffer” country, and for the elites in Kiev, which receive a new resource for playing in the Western arena”. In such publications, Ukraine does not appear as a sovereign state, but as a means of solving the problems of European states. This is the development of a stable propaganda thesis about the “external management” of Ukraine. It is also emphasized that Ukraine, unlike Western European countries, does not have mechanisms for the social integration of migrants, which threatens assimilation and cultural problems. And the Ukrainian authorities are allegedly, instead of supporting displaced persons, internally displaced persons and veterans, ready to allocate money for the adaptation of migrants - “those recommended by European partners for settlement in Ukraine”.

Proponents do not forget to mix conspiracy theories into their messages within this narrative: “A deal is being considered, Ze has received support, the Europeans have found a way out for themselves: redirecting the migration flow to Ukraine” — this thesis was promoted by the authors of the anonymous channel “Spletnica” with more than 160,000 subscribers. Or “Ukraine will cease to be Ukraine and will become a mixture with 50 percent of the population of the Muslim faith. Globalists are pushing this topic” — this prediction was written by the authors of the channel “Legitimni” with more than a million followers.

Along with conspiracy theories, such publications also contain migrant phobia and Islamophobia. Posts on anonymous Telegram channels describe the threat of the “Islamization” of Ukraine, using images of “women in niqabs” and “large migrant families”: “Soon in Ukraine, as in London, the streets will be full of women in niqabs and large migrant families living by their own laws.”

In some publications, propagandists also wrote that language centers are being opened in Europe to teach migrants the Ukrainian language, which is presented as preparation for sending these migrants to Ukraine.

“At the same time, language centers are being opened in Europe, where migrants from Syria, Pakistan and other countries learn the Ukrainian language for free. These programs are presented as humanitarian, but in fact they are preparing a “reserve” for Ukraine,” wrote the anonymous channel “Cartel” with more than 130,000 subscribers, which also belongs to a network controlled by Russian special services. There is no information in open sources at all that migrants from Asia are learning the Ukrainian language in refugee centers in the EU.

Several different channels have written in the context of inciting Islamophobia and migrantophobia about a “British scenario” for Ukraine, citing and extrapolating crimes committed by migrants in the UK, including rape, as a potential future for Ukraine.

In general, this propaganda narrative is used to incite xenophobia within Ukraine. Russian propaganda fills the messages with alarming “predictions” that Ukraine is allegedly turning into a “laboratory of the European migration experiment” or a “buffer” country for the EU, which will be flooded with foreign migrants, and national identity, language and culture will be displaced. In this context, the emergence of migrant workers is presented not as an economic necessity, the need for which arose earlier and was reinforced by the war and the outflow of refugees, but as an alleged part of a political deal with Europe that is beneficial to Western elites and is taking place with the “approval of the Bank”.

Thus, propaganda imposes on readers of anonymous Telegram channels the idea that Europe encourages the Ukrainian authorities to “replace” Ukrainians with foreign labor as part of a global political game and forms the image of Ukraine as a country without a future, losing its identity in favor of a multicultural or Islamized society.

Propaganda, in their intimidation of the “inflow of migrants from other countries to Ukraine” and manipulations about the benefits for the authorities from this, use the method of intimidation by the future. Hypothetical events that do not have to happen the way propagandists portray them are presented as terrible and inevitable. If we think positively, then such theses contain something that is missing from some traditional theses of Russian propaganda directed against Ukraine: the assertion that Ukrainians and the state of Ukraine will exist and develop their economy in the future.