Freezing the war: What it could mean for Ukraine
These days it's probably important to think about what freezing the war will end up being in today's circumstances.
With high probability, we expect a number of the following consequences:
- 1. The scale of hostilities will decrease significantly, but the tension on the contact line will remain. There will be Russian provocations and sabotage with deaths and injuries on the Ukrainian side. The Russians will use this to accuse Ukraine. Ukraine has already been through this situation, so it will definitely happen again now on an even larger scale. This will put enormous pressure on the Ukrainians who will be in a state of "neither peace nor war" there.
- 2. The feeling of war is finally localized on the line of contact and in the frontline regions. The rest of the country will try even more to return to a carefree life. The gap between the army/volunteers and the common people will increase. Therefore, tensions within the country will increase both between those who are in the mind of war and those who are "tired" and for peace at all costs.
- 3. The USA and the EU significantly ease the sanctions against the Russian Federation, noticeably normalizing relations with Moscow. Diplomatic attention towards Ukraine is decreasing. Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO becomes a forbidden topic for public communications.
- 4. Russia is beginning to recover economically, expanding its military-industrial complex and intelligence work, preparing for the next war against Ukraine and the dismantling of NATO and the EU.
- 5. The US and the EU almost completely stop arms assistance to Ukraine and significantly reduce financial assistance. The question arises: what to do with the Ukrainian army. The war is supposedly over, there is no need for such an army and it is impossible to maintain it without the help of partners, but the Russians have not gone anywhere and are holding the front line under the pressure of constant tensions. At the same time, the "peaceful" part of Ukrainians demands urgent demobilization and the opening of borders for men. On this issue, the social conflict is becoming quite acute.
- 6. At the same time, the country is sinking into the vortex of elections. The main election issues are the topics “Who in Ukraine is to blame for starting the war” and “Who in Ukraine is to blame for its ending like this”. Everyone forgets about the Russians and the dangers that lurk from there. Everyone finds their main enemies here.
In this internal turmoil, the Russians are actively helping. They have enough tools and resources for this. It is difficult to imagine the level of chaos that Ukraine will slide into during the elections and after them, if it manages to survive the day of voting.
This is how Ukraine looks hypothetically the day after the war freeze. The above is far from everything that awaits us. This is a very dry description. We write with our absolute sincerity, without adding dark colors. It seems that this is the real picture if the war freeze occurs in today's circumstances. And this is only if hostilities are frozen and Ukraine does not give in to Moscow's political demands. And if it does, then it is better not to even imagine all this...
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At this moment, we must not wait for peace, but mobilize the nation to defend the state. We cannot have two separate societies, when one is at war and the other is simply waiting for peace. We must think about asymmetric strikes on the enemy. Return to what has failed and think about how to make it successful. If we demonstrate this way of thinking with our every action, then valuable allies will stand by us, and the opinions of others should not interest us.