Echoes of sanctions in China and the "stable" Russian economy in crisis

The end of April and the beginning of May will be tough given the announcements of the fall of the Russian economy.

Following the elections in France, the European Union will approve a sixth package of sanctions, which, usually coordinated with US and British measures, should at least partially end Russia's oil funding of Ukraine's war. Shortly afterwards, Russia will be unable to pay its foreign debt.

Before that happens, previously approved sanctions will take effect, lifting Russia's old financial sources for waging wars, forcing Russian officials to seek new euphemisms for the crisis so as not to scare "ordinary Russians."

Meanwhile, Russia's economic downturn continues, a new wave of sanctions is approaching, and Russian billionaires are demanding that they not be considered Russians. What changed over the weekend?

Ships are heading towards "Moscow" while trucks are standing

A few days before Saturday, April 16, hundreds of trucks with Russian and Belarusian license plates were parked at the border crossings between the EU and Belarus, which have to leave the territory of the European Union. Drivers sometimes waited for days to reach the customs point. As expected, not everyone was able to reach customs.

Hundreds of trucks from Russia and Belarus probably did not manage to leave the territory of the European Union, because in the last hours before the deadline, the line on the Polish-Belarusian border stretched for 80 kilometers and there was no chance for everyone to return before April 16.

Most likely, thousands of other trucks from Russia and Belarus are still in the EU. Although it is not known exactly what the punishment for the misdemeanor will be, even the arrests of those who are found on the territory of the EU are not excluded.

In addition, on April 17, in all European Union countries that have sea or river ports, the EU directive on the prohibition of entry into ports by ships connected to Russia came into force. The fifth package of sanctions currently includes 2,873 Russian-flagged merchant ships that will be banned from entering EU ports.

At the same time, EU member states are allowed to provide for justified exceptions, for ships carrying energy, food and pharmaceuticals to EU countries.

Although the EU has not yet banned Russian oil and gas, some countries have already imposed restrictions on their own.

In Italy, for example, they believe that energy dependence on Russia can be reduced faster than previously announced from the EU, thanks to diversification and a moderate reduction in heating temperature by one to two degrees.

Meanwhile, Putin has decided to "save" Russian stocks, which have already come under attack on foreign stock exchanges. That is why he signed a law that obliges all Russian companies to withdraw from foreign exchange exchanges and place their shares in Russia within 10 days.

Dictionary of euphemisms for crisis and echo in China

Top Russian officials continue to look for new expressions that can describe the upcoming crisis, and not cause public unrest. The crisis that Russia itself caused when it decided to declare war on a peaceful Ukraine will happen in the aggressor state in the second or third quarter of this year.

As the governor of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiulin, called it, the country is expecting "structural transformations", because the economy will not be able to survive for a long time due to reserves. Sanctions have greatly affected the financial market, "but they will now have an increasing impact on the economy."

Although Putin has not seen any "changes" so far, he continues to tell Russians that the country has withstood "unprecedented pressure from Western sanctions". And it doesn't matter that there are two weeks left until the non-fulfillment of the obligations of the Russian Federation - until May 4. "Economic special operation" is going according to plan.

But sanctions do not only affect Russia. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, world funds and companies have been increasingly reducing their investments in China. In March alone, global funds sold more than $ 7 billion worth of shares in Hong Kong, as well as $ 14 billion in Chinese public debt in the past two months, and reduced their credit stocks.

The fact is that the scope and speed of the sanctions imposed on Russia have forced many to reconsider the West's attitude towards China. Investors are intimidated by China's ties with the aggressor, and Russia's example shows that strong trade ties do not guarantee diplomatic security.

Russians are avoiding Russia

Meanwhile, even Russians are avoiding Russia. A number of billionaires associated with Russia do not want Forbes to call them Russian citizens, focusing on the citizenships of other countries that have them. This is a trend that has been present in recent weeks.

Specifically, this was requested by the founder of VKontakte and Telegram Pavel Durov, the founders of Playrix Igor and Dmitrij Bukhmani, the co-founder of Revolut Mikola Storonski and the investor Yuri Milner.

Forbes states that there have been such requests before, but the number has risen sharply in recent months.

It seems that even geopolitical friends do not want to be associated with Russia, because they do not want to publicly admit that they agreed to buy gas for laundry.

At least Russian banks can not shy away from their Ukrainian "daughters", whose 26 billion hryvnia Ukraine plans to nationalize soon - only the decision of the National Security and Defense Council and the signature of the president.

200,000 residents of Moscow will go to the labor exchange

Russia's relentless and senseless war against Ukraine continues to create realistic chances that the citizens of the aggressor's country will lose their jobs. In recent days, the French cosmetics brand L'Occitane has closed all its stores in Russia, and the Finnish paint manufacturer Teknos has shut down the plant. With the exit of these two companies, the Russians will lose at least about a thousand jobs.

In addition, companies are in no hurry to open planned new stores. A few days ago, several large Russian food chains reported that they had frozen plans to open new stores. This means that there will be fewer vacancies in the labor market.

Even Russian officials cannot deny the rise in unemployment. Thus, the mayor of Moscow predicted that about 200,000 people in the capital of Russia will lose their jobs due to the withdrawal of foreign companies. There are no suitable new jobs for them, so they are offered retraining or social work.

This negative trend is not saved by the practice of some companies, such as Google, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, McKinsey or Visa, to relocate their Russian employees to other countries. Therefore, analysts' estimates of two million Russian citizens who could lose their jobs could come true.

Tax optimization for Russian companies can create even more problems for employees. The first example already exists. Russian oil and gas tanker operator Sovcomflot has been forced to close its financial "daughter" in the offshore zone of Cyprus due to sanctions.

Even opportunities to distract Russians from the disappointing economic reality have worsened: on Monday, Paramount Studios stopped broadcasting its entertainment channels in Russia, such as ParamountComedy, MTV and Nickelodeon, and the Russian AppStore withdrew Spotify.