China’s Ukraine Response Is All About the US (Not Russia)

In the long term, China is intent on using the Ukraine conflict to erode U.S. leadership and sow division in transatlantic relations.

Beijing increasingly faces hard choices and high stakes as Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is mired in miscalculations. Xi Jinping raised the stakes of China’s strategic cooperation with Russia with the characterization of relations with “no limits” at their February 4 meeting. China’s partnership with Russia, short of a formal alliance, serves Beijing’s long-term strategic priorities. China’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, confirmation of bilateral relations as “rock-solid,” and criticism of the West’s sanctions on Russia exert Beijing’s dominant leadership position in China-Russia relations. Moreover, China’s superior stature in bilateral relations reinforces the Chinese Communist Party’s political authority and legitimacy in domestic politics.

From the CCP’s perspective, Beijing’s identification with Moscow amplifies the credibility of authoritarian rule under Xi’s leadership on the global stage. China’s calculus pivots on legitimizing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a justified response to the United States, which Chinese officials call “the initiator of the crisis and contracting party.” In placing the onus on the United States for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Beijing has upped the ante in China-U.S. geostrategic rivalry.

A protracted conflict in Ukraine will likely continue to accelerate Russia’s reliance on China. Russia’s request for military and economic assistance from China, according to media reports based on U.S. intelligence assessments, is an indicator of this trajectory.

On March 20, two days after the video meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi, China’s ambassador to the U.S., Qin Gang, stated, “China’s trust relations with Russia, it’s not a liability, actually it’s an asset in the international efforts to solve the crisis in a peaceful way. China is part of the solution, it’s not part of the problem.” The ambassador’s emphasis on China’s “trusted” relations with Moscow and role as “part of the solution” is Beijing’s attempt to elevate China to the status of “peaceful” arbiter and problem solver – a direct rebuke of U.S. leadership in the Ukraine crisis