Belarus is Amassing Troops at the Border. Ukraine Warns. Analysts Have No Doubts

The Ukrainians claim that under the guise of exercises, the Belarusian military is conducting concerning activities near the border. Once again, there are speculations about a potential Belarusian aggression against Ukraine. What do experts say, and what are the implications? - writes Maciek Kucharczyk, a military journalist for Gazeta.pl.

The analysis was prepared by Maciek Kucharczyk, a journalist for Gazeta.pl.

On Sunday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement regarding the activities of the Belarusian military:

According to intelligence data, the Belarusian armed forces, under the cover of exercises, are gathering personnel, equipment, tanks, artillery, and anti-aircraft systems in the Gomel region, near Ukraine's northern borders. Mercenaries from the former Wagner Group are also present. Conducting exercises close to the border and the Chernobyl nuclear power plant poses a threat to Ukraine's national security and global safety.

Furthermore, the Belarusian authorities are being urged not to engage in aggressive actions and to withdraw their troops. However, specialists monitoring the Belarusian armed forces, as well as the Belarusian opposition, are not convinced that there is a real threat to Ukraine.

What is Happening in Belarus?

According to the Hajun project, which monitors the activities of the Belarusian and Russian military in Belarus, led by opposition figures associated with Anton Motolko, the scale of the forces involved is small. They estimate that around 1,100 personnel have been relocated near the border, within a 50-kilometer strip from Ukrainian territory. Hajun's assessment is that such forces do not pose a real threat to Ukrainians.