As a cover for Putin: Why Russia is holding pseudo-elections in the occupied territories

On May 18, the Russian State Duma amended the federal election law - to allow so-called elections to be held in the occupied territories, even against the background of fighting with the Ukrainian army. It was announced long ago that the Kremlin planned to hold elections in the occupied territories in the fall of 2023, on the voting day of September 10: the only obstacle was that they could not be held under a state of emergency under Russian law. Now this obstacle has been removed. Why is it so important for Putin to show election booths in Donetsk, Lugansk, Melitopol and Berdyansk? Will they change Gauleiter - or will they continue to use the services of Denis Pushilin, Leonid Pasichnik, Volodymyr Saldo and Yevhen Balitsky? But what will they do if active fighting takes place in the occupied territories at that moment?
During the occupation, when Moscow formally recognized the conquered territories of Donbass as "independent", a quasi-political system was created there: "people's councils" were "parliaments", "public movements" were parties, and "governments" were the executive power. Now that the Kremlin has declared the occupied parts of the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions subjects of the Russian Federation, this construction is changing. Now all this is adapted to the Russian model.
Who are the candidates?
The Russian publication "Komersant" calculated that 80 percent of the so-called deputies of the "LDNR" factions ran for local Russian elections. If earlier they were part of social movements - that's what ORDLO called the parties - "Donetsk Republic" and "Free Donbass" (in Donetsk) and "Lugansk Peace" and "Lugansk Economic Union" (in Lugansk), now they have massive affiliation with Russian parties. Mainly - to "United Russia".
Moreover, the associates from Donetsk surpassed all Russian politicians in their activity. The head of the central executive committee "United Russia" Alexander Sidyakin reported that the "DNR" group became the leader in terms of the number of submitted applications in the pre-election process (the phase of intra-party elections, which in the Russian Federation precedes the general vote) "among all subjects of the Federation".
In December 2021, three months before the full invasion, the leaders of the LNR and DPR factions Leonid Pasichnik and Denis Pushilin became members of "United Russia". This gives the green light to others to become members.
Despite the rather fragile political life of occupied Donetsk and Lugansk, some of these candidates are already taking care of their election campaign. For example, local politician Svitlana Gizai, who is the "Peace from Luhansk" movement deputy for Putin's party, recalls her participation in the Russian primaries:
Will it be one powerful party?
No, some of the collaborators went to other Russian political forces, which play the role of the opposition in Russia. These are "Only Russia - for the truth", LDPR and CPRF.
All of them support Russian aggression in Donbass, and "Just Russia - for the truth" was the first Russian party to even start a campaign in occupied Donetsk, it was during the 2021 Duma elections.
And how will the mighty battles go?
Residents of the occupied part of Donbas have already been involved in voting in Russia twice: during the referendum on amendments to the Constitution in 2020 and during the Duma elections in 2021.
It looked a little like a real manifestation of will: for the residents of ORDLO, who received Russian passports, they organized buses to the border towns and villages of Russia, where they inserted ballots into the ballot boxes, and some people were subjected to administrative coercion.
Therefore, there are many options for organizing an alleged vote in Russia. In addition, there is also a remote voting system.
In the fall of 2022, already during the invasion of Ukraine, the occupiers held a pseudo-referendum in Kherson on "joining" Russia. Already in a month and a half, the city was liberated by the Ukrainian army.
The Kremlin still considers it its own today, but in the channels of Russian military leaders, Kherson is present only in the context of "the armed forces have landed on the left bank" and "where they will attack next", but now there is not even a word about it being the regional center itself supposedly Russia.
The Russians will hold so-called local elections in the Kherson region only in a small area of the region, which is still occupied.
Russia has taken over the territories. Why does she need elections?
It is obvious that these "elections" could not be held, referring precisely to the state of war in the territories - they would still be run by people appointed by the Kremlin.
It is also clear that the West does not recognize their results, just as it did not recognize all previous votes in "referendums" and "elections" held by Russia in the occupied territories of Ukraine.
So why is this process necessary?
Although the territories are occupied, which is not recognized by Ukraine or the whole civilized world, it is important for Russia to include them in its legal system: creating the illusion of political life is from the same category. The essence of this aspiration is explained by Dmitro Durnev, journalist of "Spectr".
"There is absolute lawlessness in Russia and the occupied territories, but at the same time everything is filled with various legal rituals. Putin and his entourage are legalists. There has always been a huge number of various incoherent, unknown to outsiders - but legal rituals. For example, these alleged elections, that is, preparations for them. Because preparing for them is the only real action, in response to the possible imminent release of these territories by Ukraine. This is how they explain to domestic collaborators that Russia will not leave there. And when you talk to co-workers, you can suddenly get an unexpected, illogical answer to any of your questions: but Russia is there forever. It's the only result of years of occupation," says Dmytro Durnev.
This is also confirmed by the Russian propaganda narrative: that the task of the governors of these territories is to show the population that they are following a federal course.
British intelligence officers claim that the determination of local elections in the areas of Ukraine annexed to the Russian Federation continues the efforts to "Russify" them, and they remind that free democratic elections are not available to the inhabitants of the territories occupied by Russia.
Pushilin, Pasičnik, Saldo and Balicki: resign or become governors?
In addition to the composition of local legislative assemblies, governors will also be elected in Russia on September 10.
All the leaders of the occupation administrations have already registered as candidates for party elections, and Pushilin from Saldo has announced that he will also run for governor (nominations have not yet been held there).
In the Russian media, there are opinions both in favor of Putin's dismissal of wards in the occupied territories, and in favor of their removal.
The propagandists add that the functionality of the "leaders" of the occupied territories will be limited compared to the traditional powers of Russian governors. It is also assumed that the leaders of the groups can be sent to the regions of Russia: there has already been experience of the sudden transfer of militants from the Donbas deep into the Russian Federation.
Consequences
For Ukrainians living in the occupied territories, although this transition is formal, it will still cause 1. Possible deportation. According to a decree signed by Vladimir Putin on April 27, Ukrainians who do not receive Russian passports by July 1 will be treated as foreigners and will, in turn, face deportation (although it is not clear where) if they threaten Russia's national security. "Svatovo, 30 percent of your salary is deducted if you don't come immediately after the first notification, and since May they started threatening to confiscate money and further deportation," says the head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, Artem Lisogor. "The worst thing is that the children who have to take the exams now can't do it until they get a Russian passport."
2. Mobilization in the Russian army. Yes, the majority of the male population has already been mobilized in the occupied territories, but now in the Russian Federation the age limit for conscription has been raised to 60 years, and young people born in 2005 are invited to register in the occupied territories. That is, it expands the range of possible mobilized.
3. Final deletion from the archive of Ukrainian documents. For all nine years in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk, it was possible to use Ukrainian passports, although the so-called "LDNR" and Russian passports were introduced in parallel. Now it will not be possible to use a Ukrainian passport
It is clear that neither for the West nor for Ukraine, the so-called elections in the occupied territories will not change anything in the legitimacy of Russian rule over them, nor in military plans. However, it is increasingly difficult for local residents to avoid contact with this system, and leaving the conquered territories is an extremely difficult and expensive undertaking that not everyone can handle.