ANALYSIS - What the West should do in the Balkans now

If there was ever a time to fast-track NATO's expansion in the Balkans, now is the time

The author is an associate professor at the Faculty of Political Science at the University of Sarajevo.

ISTANBUL

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24 reverberated across the Balkans, and Bosniaks recalled a similar invasion by their eastern neighbor almost thirty years ago. Top Bosniak officials quickly condemned the invasion and voiced support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity. There was and still is widespread sympathy for Ukrainians in Sarajevo and beyond.

However, support for the beleaguered Ukrainians was not voiced across the country. What the war in Ukraine exposed were pro-Russian actors in Bosnia. Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, who built significant political ties with Russia over the years, refused to condemn the invasion. His subsequent and half-hearted attempts to express support simultaneously for Russia and Ukraine left no illusions about where he stood.

Pro-Russian actors

While Dodik’s position was expected, another politician’s views on Ukraine drew widespread attention. A Bosnian Croat leader and chairman of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), Dragan Covic, has also been now exposed as a pro-Russian actor. Several Bosnian journalists and analysts have been writing about Covic’s pro-Russia policies for years, but this view did not hold until now. By refusing to condemn the invasion, Covic showed his true colors.

After he was criticized, he tried to whitewash his initial refusal with various press statements. Furthermore, Covic’s party failed to support a move in Bosnia’s parliament that Bosnia joins the EU in imposing sanctions on Russia for its war in Ukraine. This practically means that both Dodik and Covic -politicians with veto-wielding powers in Bosnia- support Russia’s position.

This now shows that only Bosniaks and civic parties based in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina have remained staunch pro-Western actors in the country. In the days since February 24, now that Russia’s war is faltering, Dodik and Covic are on the defensive. There has been a marked decline in their rhetoric due to the invasion gone wrong in Ukraine.

NATO now

The West should take note, and specific steps should now be taken. Led by the US, the West should move to integrate the Balkans within the Atlantic Alliance. The Biden administration is now in a unique position to push for the accession of Bosnia and Kosovo into NATO. Fears of tensions escalating in the Balkans have been moderated by the defensive posture of anti-NATO politicians, including Dodik. If there was ever a time to fast-track NATO’s expansion in the Balkans, now is the time. By integrating both Bosnia and Kosovo, the Biden administration would achieve a significant milestone in safeguarding the security of this part of southeast Europe.

Furthermore, the US should exert pressure on the EU to bring Bosnia and Kosovo closer to full membership. Bosnia submitted its application to join the EU in 2016 and is still awaiting its candidate status. European countries, led by the new German government, should now push for the awarding of candidate status. This would provide Bosnia with access to EU funds and revive the moribund European integration process of this post-war country.

Similarly, the EU should change its policy and open the door to Kosovo. The country’s commitment to the West has been proven on multiple occasions, and Kosovo remains a staunch American ally in the region. Kosovo welcomed Afghan refugees in recent years and has been unequivocal in its support for Ukraine. The country remains committed to joining both NATO and the EU.

As a first step, a visa liberalization regime should be granted to citizens of Kosovo. In 2018, the Commission confirmed that Kosovo fulfilled the visa liberalization benchmarks. Visa issues are a source of unease among Kosovo’s citizens, and it is time for the EU to lift the visa requirements. While Kosovo’s EU accession process is essential, joining NATO is a priority for this European state.

Biden’s legacy

US President Joe Biden is now into his second year, with mid-term elections coming up this November. While his administration has responded well to the invasion of Ukraine, Biden still needs to consolidate his foreign policy legacy.

Almost three decades ago, Biden was a hawkish senator advocating a robust American response to the wars in Bosnia and Kosovo. As president, Biden is in a position to move forward with the integration of Bosnia and Kosovo into NATO. Only under the NATO security umbrella will these two countries be secure. Fast-tracking NATO accession for Bosnia and Kosovo would also be scoring a major foreign policy success that would dovetail with President Biden’s commitment to the Balkans in the 1990s.