The Kremlin’s new deadline is April 1: is the Russian Federation capable of capturing the Donetsk region in 2026?

 

According to Western and Ukrainian sources, Russia is preparing a major military campaign for 2026, within which the key goal remains the complete occupation of the Donetsk region. According to sources, the Kremlin sees next year as an attempt to achieve a strategic turning point in the war against Ukraine.

The Russian Federation plans to take full control of the Donetsk region by April 1, 2026. This region has been identified as a priority for the Russian command.

In general, Moscow has formed two key areas of military effort for 2026.

Priority No. 1 — Donetsk Oblast.

The main focus of Russian troops is concentrated on Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, as well as on attempts to break through to the Kramatorsk-Konstantinovsk agglomeration. According to sources, the Russian Federation is trying to change the tactics of the battle, avoiding massive "frontal" attacks on cities.

Instead, the occupiers rely on bypassing settlements, infiltration by small groups and disrupting the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine using strike and reconnaissance drones. This approach is aimed at gradually exhausting Ukrainian defenses and creating conditions for encircling large urban nodes.

 

Priority No. 2 — Zaporizhia Oblast.

The second key area remains Zaporizhia Oblast, where the most active fighting continues in the areas of Khuljaipol and Orekhovo. According to sources, the Russian command is trying to expand the front line in order to force the Ukrainian Defense Forces to disperse reserves between several threatening areas.

At the same time, the Russian Federation is trying to improve its tactical positions in the southern direction, consolidating on the occupied borders and increasing pressure with artillery, aviation and drones.

As noted by Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of the program at the Center for Global Studies, the Russian command is focusing its efforts on the northwestern Zaporizhia Oblast and on the eastern borders of the region, trying to repeat the tactical approaches previously used in the Donetsk Oblast. At the same time, according to him, Russian forces are facing local difficulties and are forced to constantly restructure their actions due to increased resistance from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The most intense fighting on the Zaporizhia direction continues in the areas of Orikhiv and Khuljaipol. Despite active offensive operations, Russian units are unable to achieve a stable breakthrough, which forces the command to shift emphasis and look for new pressure points. Lakiychuk draws attention to the so-called "transfer of the main blow" - a situation when the enemy, having failed in one segment, tries to compensate for it by activating in another.

 

Analysts associate these actions with the gradual exhaustion of Russian forces in the Donbass. Attempts to activate in the south are considered an element of adjustment - without abandoning the main goal on the Donetsk direction, but with the desire to maintain constant pressure along the entire front.

 

At the same time, the situation in the rear of the Zaporizhia region remains tense. Despite tactical difficulties, the occupiers continue to accumulate forces and try to advance deep into Ukrainian positions, especially on the Novooleksandrivka–Oleksievka and Yehorivka–Danilivka segments. Russian assault groups operate on a broad front, combining maneuvering with intensive attacks, while Ukrainian units strengthen defenses and counterattacks, making it difficult for the enemy to make any steady advance.

Experts agree that a combination of drone warfare, pressure on logistics, and a gradual expansion of the front form the basis of Russia's strategy for 2026. This is not about quick breakthroughs, but a long-term campaign of attrition, in which the Kremlin is trying to compensate for limited operational successes by scaling up the pressure and adapting tactics to the realities of modern warfare.

 

Military observer Denis Popovich is skeptical about Russia’s ability to fully implement its declared plans. As he noted in a commentary for Focus, one cannot yet speak of 100 percent implementation of Russia’s intentions in the Donetsk region. The defense of the Ukrainian armed forces there remains solid, and the enemy’s losses are critical.

At the same time, according to him, the situation looks different in the Zaporizhia direction. It is there that the Russian command is trying to compensate for the limited successes in the Donbass, increasing pressure and expanding the zone of active combat operations.

“In the Zaporizhia region, they are really trying to advance, using tactics of maneuvering, stretching the front and drone pressure,” the military observer added.

 

Russian deadlines: what will happen after April 1

 

At the same time, military expert Oleg Zhdanov warns that Russian deadlines are not perceived as clear and immutable. According to him, the Kremlin traditionally sets itself new deadlines and constantly shifts them, trying to maintain the illusion of control over the situation.

“I think they will continue to set new dates for themselves and try to implement them. The only thing that can really stop the Russian Federation is the collapse of the economy. When the economy collapses, then they will start thinking about what to do next,” Zhdanov notes for Focus.

The expert draws attention to the risk of a worst-case scenario. According to him, in the event of a systemic defeat or internal crisis, the Russian leadership may resort to nuclear blackmail, since the very logic of Russian political culture is built on the rejection of defeat.

“In the minds of Russians - from Putin to the last inhabitant - defeat is impossible. There it is either death or victory. They think in categories: if there is no Russia - then why is there such a world, if there is no Putin - there is no Russia either,” the expert explains.

Assessing the situation at the front, Zhdanov notes that the Russian General Staff cannot decide on the main direction of efforts, trying to implement several scenarios at once. According to him, this is clearly visible in the current activity of the enemy.

“If you look closely at the front line, they are simultaneously pressing both in the direction of Zaporizhia and in the direction of Liman, bypassing Slavyansk, they are starting to press on Kramatorsk. That is, they are carrying out two or even more operations at once and cannot decide where the main objective is and where to concentrate the main efforts,” Zhdanov notes.

 

According to experts, this model of action is not new to Russia. During all the years of the full-scale war, the Russians rarely took breaks, instead constantly trying to press on several operational directions at once, stretching the front and the Ukrainian defense.

“Yes, they do this mainly at the expense of infantry and simply at the expense of insane losses of personnel. If you look back: in 1418 days the Soviet army covered the path from Brest to the Volga and from the Volga to Berlin. And what did the Russian Federation do during the same time? There are no victories, but inside the country it is presented as a great achievement,” Zhdanov emphasizes.

In his opinion, such rhetoric is based on the propaganda narrative of “war with all of NATO,” which the Kremlin uses to explain the lack of real strategic results.

Commenting on the emergence of a specific date - April 1 - as a possible deadline for the capture of individual regions, Zhdanov notes that Russia traditionally gravitates towards symbolic or conditionally “beautiful” dates, but there may be no clear rational logic here.

In conclusion, Zhdanov notes: nothing extraordinary should be expected from Russia. The key risk remains not so much military logic as psychological instability in decision-making, and therefore, according to him, it is critically important for Western intelligence services to closely monitor internal processes in the Russian Federation.

As a reminder, GUR reported that in early 2026, the Russian Armed Forces first attacked Ukraine with a Geran-5 attack drone. It is approximately six meters long and has a wingspan of up to 5.5 meters. According to intelligence, the enemy is thinking about reinforcing these unmanned aerial vehicles with R-73 air-to-air missiles.