The intelligence agencies 'detect' signals of Chinese propaganda in Macedonian elections

 

In North Macedonia, during the pre-election period, Chinese disinformation propaganda is ongoing, taking the form of a campaign and fostering Euroscepticism, while at the same time offering citizens an alternative to the country's membership in BRICS and the Eurasian Union.

 

This statement was made to Radio Free Europe (RFE) by the head of the Intelligence Agency, Erold Musliu. Although he does not specify which "actors" - political or media - he categorizes into this group, a positive approach to Chinese narratives is recognized within one political party.

 

This concerns the Left party and its candidate who did not make it to the second round of the presidential elections, Biljana Vankovska, who advocated for leaving NATO and European integration.

 

The Left is a party with two representatives in the Assembly and an extremely leftist ideology, but at the same time nationalist.

 

 

In its program for the parliamentary elections, the Left advocates for enhancing bilateral relations with the People's Republic of China to the level of a strategic partnership (collaboration within the "17+1 Initiative" and support for the "Belt and Road Initiative"), with a focus on infrastructure connectivity, as well as the abolition of visa regime with China.

 

In the election programs of other political parties, whether presidential or parliamentary elections, China is not mentioned.

 

On the official website of the Left, the party's political platform is also available in Chinese.

 

The Left also has its own online media outlet. It's called "Antropol," registered under the name "Association of Citizens - Media Association for Informing Citizens 'Antropol - Skopje'." The founding structure of this non-governmental organization consists of members of the Left. Regarding its content, Antropol shares articles and columns authored by individuals promoting narratives that endorse Chinese policies.

 

 

In 2022, the Left sent a letter to the Communist Party of China congratulating the re-election of their leader Xi Jinping. A year earlier, members of the Presidium of the Left and its president, Dimitar Apasiev, virtually participated in the World Summit of the Communist Party of China on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of its founding.

 

Although director Erold Musliu does not specify who promotes Chinese propaganda in North Macedonia, this political party is the only one that "offers an alternative to the West."

 

Regarding the claims of the Intelligence Agency and whether they recognize themselves in them, the Left states that North Macedonia is a "sovereign state and no other state has the right to interfere in the internal affairs and politics of the Republic of Macedonia."

 

"As far as we are concerned, the Left is not anti-EU, nor does it promote Euroscepticism. We need a change in the negotiation framework and methodology for EU accession, and in the absence of understanding from the EU, we have every right to seek alternatives that will not subjugate us," the Left responded to RFE.

 

There is no direct Chinese influence on the elections.

According to Ana Krstinovska from "Estime," who has been analyzing Chinese politics for years, there is no direct Chinese influence during the pre-election period in North Macedonia. While in Canada or other Western European countries, there is an increase in candidates with favorable attitudes towards China.

 

"In our case, it's the Left party and their presidential candidate who directly promote Chinese positions and the Chinese vision of a new world order with their narratives about BRICS and a multipolar world. What needs to be verified is whether this is a result of their ideological orientation or inclination, or direct or indirect support and assistance from various Chinese factors," says Krstinovska.

 

The Left responded to RFE stating that the reason for fostering relations with China and other countries is of an ideological nature.

 

"The Left advocates for the individual and simultaneous development of strategic partnerships with each of the countries that are permanent members of the UN Security Council, including China, as well as: the United States, Russia, France, and the United Kingdom - in order to ensure security and stability for our country and our citizens," they state.

 

They also mention in their program "the development of cooperation with other countries that are developing a socialist system with their specificities: Vietnam, Bolivia, Cuba, and others."

 

"The reason we advocate for fostering relations with these countries is ideological; avoiding raising bilateral relations with China to the level of a strategic partnership is irresponsible and short-sighted," responded the Left to RFE.

 

The unfolding scenario:

 

On June 20, 2023, the Intelligence Agency warned that North Macedonia would be targeted with propaganda and disinformation about constitutional changes and the 2024 elections.

 

Ahead of the dual elections, presidential and parliamentary, on May 8, the Agency's Director Erold Musliu stated to RFE that such a pre-election scenario is materializing, noting that propagandistic narratives have been observed in the preceding period.

 

The Intelligence Agency has identified a hybrid strategy and selective use of narratives that evoke emotional reactions, leveraging sensitive issues in the region, which particularly intensify during election cycles.

 

"In North Macedonia, the focus is on the European integration process, which is necessarily linked to constitutional amendments. The entire process surrounding negotiations with Bulgaria has been accompanied by disinformation precisely with the intention to manipulate the public, create confusion, and sow inter-ethnic and intra-ethnic divisions. One of the goals of this campaign is to undermine trust in the institutions of the system, particularly in the security and intelligence services which are subjected to intensive attacks through social media platforms such as YouTube and TikTok," stated Musliu to RFE.

 

Constitutional amendments incorporating Bulgaria into the Preamble are a condition for the continuation of North Macedonia's accession negotiations with the European Union (EU), and this is the focus of the pre-election campaign.

 

However, Director Musliu does not specifically respond to the question of whether the Agency has information about Chinese influence or potential financing of political parties in North Macedonia.

 

"The election year allows China to interfere in elections by promoting and providing comprehensive support to preferred candidates and parties with which it already has cooperation. Although such parties are marginal in many countries, it is in China's interest to spread narratives against Western strategic alliances and advocate for a multipolar world and cooperation with China during pre-election campaigns," says Musliu.

 

Positive narratives about China in the media

Previous analyses by the NGO "Estima" in the field of media representation show that China heavily relies on propaganda and the dissemination of exclusively positive perceptions in a "rosy and unrealistic" light.

 

"In our media, China is portrayed as an economic superpower, a country on the path to achieving technological dominance in the world. But increasingly, we also see the presentation of the Chinese model of governance as fundamentally linked to China's technological success, thereby automatically promoting authoritarianism over democracy as a regime more favorable for fostering economic growth compared to democratic governance," says Krstinovska.

 

But the head of the Intelligence Agency, Erold Musliu, goes even further. Musliu points out that China is attempting to exert its influence in the media space by forming close relationships with certain journalists and media outlets and coordinating the dissemination of prepared propaganda messages aimed at shaping public opinion in favor of China.

 

Musliu mentions that some media outlets, without specifying which ones, in pursuit of financial sustainability and in the race for profit, unwittingly fall into the matrix of hybrid activities of states that are strategic rivals of the EU and NATO.

 

The Chinese Embassy in North Macedonia is also quite active on the social network Facebook. However, often below these posts, Facebook notes that they come from "Chinese state-controlled media." The explanation states that "Facebook labels this publisher because it believes it may be partially or entirely under editorial control of a state."

 

 

Weak and contentious economic presence of China

 

Previously, the current head of state, Stevo Pendarovski, emphasized in a statement to RFE that Chinese influence in North Macedonia "undoubtedly exists" and comes through economic channels.

 

However, Pendarovski makes a distinction regarding the way China and Russia are present in North Macedonia.

 

"Russian influence never comes through the economy. We practically have no Russian investments in Macedonia. We have never had them," he states.

 

However, Pendarovski says, China has a completely different approach.

 

"China comes through investments and through cheap loans they offer you. And so, if you're inclined to some dishonest behavior in certain areas, the Chinese can enter in such a way. So far, they have come exclusively with economic initiatives that at first glance do not look like an attempt, I don't know, at intelligence penetration. I can't claim such a thing. However, so far I haven't seen a classic or traditional spy school or approach from the Chinese. With the Russians, it's a traditional approach," says Pendarovski.

 

Compared to other countries in the Western Balkans, North Macedonia has relatively few Chinese investments. Mapping Chinese investments in the region shows that China's development campaign in infrastructure projects such as the "Belt and Road Initiative" comes at a high cost to human rights, transparency, and the environment, with particularly strong consequences for the

climate, as noted in a recent report by the non-governmental organization Just Finance International.

 

The research pertains to mapping Chinese investments and legal proceedings related to them in North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, and Albania. According to the report, over 100 cases have been recorded in dozens of investments in neighboring countries, which, as stated in the report, raises questions about the legality and ethics of Chinese investments in the Western Balkans.

 

In North Macedonia, two Chinese infrastructure projects have been recorded, namely the construction of the highways Kičevo - Ohrid and Miladinovci - Štip. The Chinese company "Sinohydro" is listed as the contractor for these construction works.

 

The non-governmental organization writes about the legal proceedings in the "Trajectory" case, which related to the procedure for selecting the Chinese company "Sinohydro" for the construction of the Miladinovci - Štip and Kičevo - Ohrid highways.

 

This case was opened by the former Special Public Prosecutor's Office, in which the former authorities were accused of corruption, specifically commissions charged from the Chinese company. However, with amendments to the Criminal Code, the criminal offense has become statute-barred, and those accused of abuse of official duty and bribery will not be prosecuted.

 

In the fight against Russian and Chinese narratives, North Macedonia is not alone. On May 12, 2023, North Macedonia became the first country with which the United States signed a Memorandum of Understanding and Cooperation in the fight against disinformation coming from Russia, China, or third countries.

 

Just a month earlier, in April, China and the United States "clashed" on Macedonian soil. The reason for this was mutual accusations of spreading disinformation and propaganda in the Western Balkan countries, including North Macedonia.

 

James Rubin, the Special Representative and Coordinator of the Center for Global Engagement at the State Department, emphasized that the "Western Balkans region is under strong influence of manipulations and lies from Russian and Chinese structures."

 

The Chinese Embassy in North Macedonia reacted, stating that the U.S. is the "biggest distributor of disinformation" and called on American politicians to stop vilifying and defaming China, thereby also damaging friendly relations with North Macedonia.

 

During this period, for the first time on the public scene, the director of the state Intelligence Agency highlighted that in North Macedonia, besides Russian, there is also Chinese influence and emphasized that the country will be a target of disinformation and propaganda during the dual presidential and parliamentary elections.

 

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