Putin is testing the West and its unity
Drones over Poland; MiGs crossing Estonian airspace; telecommunications cables damaged deep under the Baltic Sea; airports paralyzed by cyberattacks and quadcopters; mysterious explosions and assassinations; swarms of bots pumping out propaganda to disrupt elections: none of these are casus belli on their own, but together they create something new and dangerous. Vladimir Putin is campaigning in a gray area against NATO: a cheap, deniable, measured attempt to unsettle Europe, carefully below the threshold of open conflict. “We are not at war,” said the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, this week. “But we are no longer at peace either.”
The damage was never serious, so why all this? Putin knows he can't defeat NATO in open conflict, but his goal, judging by the general tone of his letters and speeches, is not just to be a nuisance. He is trying to achieve three things - and he should not succeed in any of them.
First, Putin’s goal is to break NATO’s unity. He intends to make Europeans suspicious of each other and, in particular, to question America’s commitment to the alliance they created in 1949. He seeks to sow doubt that Article 5, which treats an attack on one as an attack on all, cannot be relied upon; and, ultimately, to distance America from Europe altogether. NATO, as Putin has often stated, is dedicated to the disintegration of Russia; therefore, it must itself be destroyed from within.
At the turn of the century, America was more powerful than all its enemies and friends combined. Osama bin Laden had begun the disintegration. His attacks on the Twin Towers in 2001 had dragged America into excessive involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq, provoking domestic resistance to international commitments. Chinese authorities dream of a similar American withdrawal from East Asia. That is why Xi Jinping is using incursions into gray areas to make Taiwan vulnerable and to cast doubt on America’s commitment to Asian partners. By disregarding the security order that has empowered the world since 1945, Donald Trump is making Xi’s task easier.
The same is true for Europe. Trump’s response to the drone incursion into Poland was that “it could have been a mistake,” although solidarity was needed. It is not difficult to connect those words to the violation of Estonian airspace by three MiG-31s ten days later. Trump must emphasize his commitment to military action in Europe if necessary. If sabotage and airspace violations are seen as routine, deterrence becomes a matter of debate—and when it is debated, it weakens.
Putin’s second target is Ukraine. His summer offensive has failed, so he wants to raise the price for European countries supporting the Ukrainian military. The focus of the gray zone attacks has been on the countries that are its strongest supporters. Poland, Estonia, and Denmark have suffered drone strikes, GPS jamming, and sabotage. Germany has faced cyberattacks on its defense and logistics companies. Moldova and Romania, as frontline countries, have had elections interfered in - in both cases unsuccessfully, showing that Putin doesn’t always get what he wants. His message to voters and politicians is clear: instead of sending weapons to Ukraine, you should be concerned with appeasing Russia or defending yourself.
The third explanation for this campaign is deeper and older. Putin despises classical liberal democracies whose wealth and resilience expose his failures and repression. They outstrip him economically. Russia’s GDP is smaller than Italy’s, even though its population is more than twice as large. The more he can sow discord and confusion within the West, the stronger he will appear. The more he can discredit centrist governments, the more he will benefit the populist nationalists who share his suspicion of a united Europe.
What should allies do? First, they must expose everything. It is tempting to ignore minor provocations or, without evidence of Russian responsibility, refrain from making accusations. But ignoring the gray area is acknowledging it. And once acknowledged, it spreads. Sabotage, cyberattacks, election interference: all must be quickly identified and evidence made public. This deprives Russia of credible denial and lets Western voters know that they are the target of a campaign.
NATO and the European Union must also improve their resilience. Defending against a gray zone means spare parts and repair teams for cables and pipelines, rapid cyber response teams, and strengthened election commissions. It is a tedious but vital job of building up backup systems and readiness. At the same time, Europe must strengthen its defenses. Patrols in the Baltic Sea must be continuous; more sensors are needed. Europe needs cheap interceptors that can shoot down drones, which Russia produces in large numbers, in the tens of thousands.
Raising the F-35 fighter jets and using missiles that cost millions of dollars against drones that cost only thousands of dollars will ultimately exhaust European defenses, making them vulnerable.
Ultimately, the alliance must impose a clear price. Sanctions should be activated against suppliers and shell companies due to cross-border drones.
Cyber attacks need to be met with cyber countermeasures. Now is the time to use frozen Russian assets to pay for Ukraine’s defense, which is in effect the defense of Europe. And yes, that defense could mean shooting down a fighter jet that poses a threat to life or property. The faint-hearted worry about escalation, but inaction threatens escalation of a different kind. If Russia thinks it can get away with limited acts of aggression, something truly dangerous could happen one day—like Putin seizing a pocket of land around Narva on the Estonian side of the border, a city full of Russian speakers whose rights Russia is supposedly defending.
Respond more strongly
All of this is hard to do even if American guarantees are solid. It’s even harder when Trump is not a secure member of the alliance. This year he says he supports NATO, and last year he suggested he would “encourage Russia to do whatever it wants” to those who don’t pay enough. Such words are interpreted as a call to test and divide allies. Putin is listening.