Five scenarios for Ukraine — who is preparing for what? 

Thinking through current scenarios for the ongoing Russian war against Ukraine: 
First, let’s start with thinking through the motivations of the individual players.

Zelensky – wants to ensure a peace that leaves Ukraine sovereign, significantly whole (minimum territorial concessions), secure, and with a good outlook for future prosperity – the latter important for Ukraine to be able to fund a significant portion of its own defense going forward.

Putin – more or less the mirror image of Ukraine, as he wants to weaken Ukrainian sovereignty sufficiently to pull Ukraine back under his influence/control. He will want to ensure that if any peace is agreed, it will leave Ukraine insecure, economically weak, unpalatable for investment, and vulnerable to future Russian military aggression. 
Putin also wants to weaken NATO and would rather not end up in a ditch like Gaddafi. While for Putin it’s all about his legacy – his place in history –his personal safety tends to come first, he wants that legacy to be delayed!
Trump – he has few cares or real understanding of Putin, Ukraine, or Russia, but he wants any quick deal, which he can sell as a win for the midterms in November, but also to boost his case for a Nobel Prize. He would love it if any deal opened opportunities for the
Europe – finally understands that Russia is an existential threat and the U.S. backstop for European security is no longer there. And finally gets it that the best assurance for European security is Ukraine – the longer Ukraine lasts, the more time Europe has to develop an autonomous defense capability to counter the threat from Russia. So, if the U.S. walks away, Europe has no choice but to continue to fund and arm Ukraine.

China - a bit of a bi-stander but selling arms to both sides. Agnostic on war and peace. A long war weakens the West and Russia, playing to China’s interests. China does not want a Russian defeat, but it is a little nervous also about the idea of a reverse Nixonian, as it would be the target. Perhaps sees the war in Ukraine as a means to prise Europe out of the U.S. grasp. 
Ok, what are the scenarios?

Good/sustainable peace in 26’ – both sides agree and hold to the terms – 5%.
Unsustainable peace deal agreed in 26’ - 25%. Trump forces Zelensky to accept a deal conceding Donbas, but either Putin breaks this immediately or awaits the inevitable political fallout from any such deal in Ukraine to destabilize the country, allowing for further Russian military intervention, taking significantly more territory. US/European security guarantees are not worth the paper they are written on.
War drags on in its current form through 26’, into 27, status quo. 50%.
Ukraine win over the next year, 10%. Let’s say on the back of tech innovation, changing battlefield momentum, or uprising in Russia – Prigozhin style.
Russia wins -10% over the next year. Either on tech innovation as per the Ukraine scenario above, or let’s say Trump gets annoyed with Zelensky’s foot-dragging on peace talks and pulls intelligence and arms supplies. Ukrainian front lines collapse, and Russia captures significant swathes of Ukrainian territory, eventually dominating Kyiv.